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Tropical TS Elsa

This could end up in the central gulf if GEFS keeps trending west. Is there any chance Elsa slows down a little and strengthen a bit?
 
Disclaimer it's hard to tell at night but satellite is certainly looking more impressive. I can remember many storms in this area moving at 30 mph that couldn't keep a center early season. This doesn't appear to be that. Recon tomorrow is going to be interesting if these trends are realGOES16_1km_ir_202107020115_7.25_15.75_-61.75_-47.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png
 
Brent said:
Disclaimer it's hard to tell at night but satellite is certainly looking more impressive. I can remember many storms in this area moving at 30 mph that couldn't keep a center early season. This doesn't appear to be thatView attachment 86034
Click to expand...
It'll be interesting to see if it can remain stacked on its approach to the windward islands. That area is going to have the highest shear of its life span thus far
 
Brent said:
Disclaimer it's hard to tell at night but satellite is certainly looking more impressive. I can remember many storms in this area moving at 30 mph that couldn't keep a center early season. This doesn't appear to be that. Recon tomorrow is going to be interesting if these trends are realView attachment 86034
Click to expand...
I believe Elsa is suppose to start slowing down with speed once its in the Caribbean.
 
Brent said:
Disclaimer it's hard to tell at night but satellite is certainly looking more impressive. I can remember many storms in this area moving at 30 mph that couldn't keep a center early season. This doesn't appear to be that. Recon tomorrow is going to be interesting if these trends are realView attachment 86034
Click to expand...
If she were moving 15 knots than she would probably already or almost be cane by now.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
It'll be interesting to see if it can remain stacked on its approach to the windward islands. That area is going to have the highest shear of its life span thus far
Click to expand...

Yeah theres still a big question before it clears Hispaniola but it seems to be getting a head start

If there's any kind of a slowdown that would help too
 
Arcc said:
Looks like the HWRF along with the GFS wants to create a weakness/ULL over TX which helps pull it westward.
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Scary thing with that is (if right of course) could create some good outflow channel as well.
 
Hot towers going up.

12a1c43acf430ada5b8a291a2fb3c69e.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tornadocane said:
Airport in Barbados already seeing sustained winds of 40 MPH and Gusts reaching 60 MPH.

METAR TAF : Grantley Adams International Airport, Bridgetown Barbados

METAR TAF : Current weather observation and Forecast, Bridgetown Grantley Adams International Airport Barbados
en.allmetsat.com
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58 MPH Sustained
77 MPH Gust
metar-taf.com

METAR TBPB - Grantley Adams International Airport

METAR TBPB 260200Z 09014KT 8000 -SHRA VCSH SCT016 BKN036 24/23 Q1016 RESHRA NOSIG. Current weather is light showers rain, in the vicinity showers .The wind is from direction 090° with a speed of 14 kt. Visibility is 8 km. The ceiling, broken or more, is 3,600 ft. The temperature and wind chill...
metar-taf.com metar-taf.com

Radar indicates the COC is 20 Miles SSE of Barbados.
 
Tornadocane said:
58 MPH Sustained
77 MPH Gust
metar-taf.com

METAR TBPB - Grantley Adams International Airport

METAR TBPB 260200Z 09014KT 8000 -SHRA VCSH SCT016 BKN036 24/23 Q1016 RESHRA NOSIG. Current weather is light showers rain, in the vicinity showers .The wind is from direction 090° with a speed of 14 kt. Visibility is 8 km. The ceiling, broken or more, is 3,600 ft. The temperature and wind chill...
metar-taf.com metar-taf.com

Radar indicates the COC is 20 Miles SSE of Barbados.
Click to expand...

63 MPH Sustained
86 MPH Gusts

Barbados is going to see a hurricane without any hurricane watches or warnings issued. Barbados isn't even in the eye wall.
 
Live News with a couple reporters on the ground in Barbados. Barbados Meteorological Official just said that the Island government has issued a Hurricane Warning due to observations of 70-80 MPH sustained winds.

 
Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone
is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
To me, it's already looking more and more like the GFS/hurricane models will be right here.
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Yeah I’m not surprised at all .. Gfs still hasn’t backed down either .. it’s time for the euro to play catch up per usual in the tropical season. Euro may be good overall but it has nothing on on the American models when it comes to tropical weather
 
Now… is the satellite presentation perfect? Nope .. easily seeing dry air problems and of course it’s moving at break neck speed so it’s bound to be sloppy but it’s got good outflow channels and has good thunderstorm intensity all around helping support the core through the tough journey … another case of rapid intensification
 
Brent said:
Even their special just out has zero strengthening. It's still a TS near the US
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Yeah basically showing it has peaked..... ok, seems odd for an agency that has been naming any cluster of precip with rotation a TC lately haha
 
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