• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Elsa

I'm just not sure i'm buying the northern shift as hard as the Euro is selling it. Look at the 850 steering.

Strong Westerly flow on top of, and in front of the cyclone. [24hr]

1625171455153.png

and yet it still jogs north? [48 hr]

1625171526629.png

That ridge nose is still present, with decent westerly flow north of the cyclone. I'm just not buying the angle of northern turn on the Euro
 
Ruuude
@NickyBGuarantee did you read @SD link or did you ignore it because it doesnt satisfy your weenie fantasies? Read before disliking my post, which had hard facts. Truth hurts sometimes. If the models were opposite and it was the Gfs showing it getting tore apart and heading ots you would find a way to bash the Gfs and crown the euro.
 
...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Click to expand...
New advisory:
New track:
205258_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Snowfan said:
New advisory:
New track:
205258_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
Click to expand...
Same general overall idea when looking at the past few advisories. Obviously the NHC seems to be favoring the more western solutions that go into the Gulf. I certainly wouldn’t bet against those forecasters. All in all, they’ve done a really good job on forecast tracks the last few years, even a few days out. The only one that I can really recall them completely whiffing was Irma….which just kept correcting further west
 
Hasn’t the Euro done pretty bad on tropical systems lately. Right now I don’t see it going out to sea without a USA likely Florida landfall


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
smast16 said:
I'm just not sure i'm buying the northern shift as hard as the Euro is selling it. Look at the 850 steering.

Strong Westerly flow on top of, and in front of the cyclone. [24hr]

View attachment 86004

and yet it still jogs north? [48 hr]

View attachment 86005

That ridge nose is still present, with decent westerly flow north of the cyclone. I'm just not buying the angle of northern turn on the Euro
Click to expand...

Euro looks to be dead on on motion in both of those images
 
6 to 8 days away from LF, depends where it hits. The storm hasn't even made it to the Caribbean yet so plenty plenty of time for a different track. Fun times ahead.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
View attachment 86015

GFS starting to show signs of slowing the trough. Leaving the door slightly ajar for OTS..?
Click to expand...
It would need to slow it down a good bit more than than that. That set up would most likely be a track right up the Florida west coast and into the Big Bend area. As the trough pulls away it could also slow the forward speed down significantly as it comes into the southeast. This is something that is a worry this time of the year with troughs not dipping as far south as we see in the fall. The trough will be enough to pull it north, but if the storm gets left behind, then you end with a storm overland just spinning itself out and dumping tons of rain.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top