• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Elsa

I think a shift back to the west is very possible as the ridge builds back in and the trough slips by. 18z gfs shows a NW then a WNW in the gulf allowing more of a western shift into the northern Panhandle.
 
Elsa is a bit weaker.
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
New track:
030034_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Let's hope this doesn't happen:
The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.
Click to expand...
 
GFS initialized better with the pressure but is weaker than last run so far @60 hours.
 
Of course having said that the hwrf is trending towards more land interaction in the Caribbean tonight. If you compare the runs today there has been a clear north shift away from Jamaica(hardly any land more water) and more towards Haiti and Eastern Cuba(mountains)
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
Of course having said that the hwrf is trending towards more land interaction in the Caribbean tonight. If you compare the runs today there has been a clear north shift away from Jamaica(hardly any land more water) and more towards Haiti and Eastern Cuba(mountains)
Click to expand...
Yep you’re right. 00z goes over the mountains in Hispaniola and then rides the length of Cuba. Shreds it
 
Lmao Euro woke up and has track up eastern GOM (looks weak entering, but strengthening) as it heads up into NC FL then NE.
In other words, it’s not OTS
 
deltadog03 said:
Lmao Euro woke up and has track up eastern GOM (looks weak entering, but strengthening) as it heads up into NC FL then NE.
In other words, it’s not OTS
Click to expand...
Not suprised… I think the question is at this point… what’s left of it after the shredder and how quickly does it comeback?
 
It’s looking mighty disorganized this morning. Any land interaction with Hispaniola is going to have serious impacts on its llc as its decoupled
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
It’s looking mighty disorganized this morning. Any land interaction with Hispaniola is going to have serious impacts on its llc as its decoupled
Click to expand...
Honestly mountain terrain might not disrupt a super weak system like it would a strong and put together one .. all in all Elsa looks to be a dud but possibly a well needed rain maker
 
I had a made a couple posts yesterday about the possibility of decoupling or major effects of shear. To be honest I'm not sure I've seen a storm move at 30mph and survive let alone strengthen into a cane. While it was impressive it appears its luck ran out and cred to the euro showing a highly disorganized system.
 
Shaggy said:
I had a made a couple posts yesterday about the possibility of decoupling or major effects of shear. To be honest I'm not sure I've seen a storm move at 30mph and survive let alone strengthen into a cane. While it was impressive it appears its luck ran out and cred to the euro showing a highly disorganized system.
Click to expand...
Ehhh euro didn’t call this it missed the whole day of it actually becoming a hurricane if anything it was a mix of euro and Gfs that ended up being correct but by no means did the euro do well here at all
 
Shaggy said:
I had a made a couple posts yesterday about the possibility of decoupling or major effects of shear. To be honest I'm not sure I've seen a storm move at 30mph and survive let alone strengthen into a cane. While it was impressive it appears its luck ran out and cred to the euro showing a highly disorganized system.
Click to expand...
Of course as we say that it’s firing deep convection
 
Looks like a TS, and I think might skirt south of the bigger islands. might shoot the gap btwn Jamaica and Cuba for a time before getting to Cuba.
 
deltadog03 said:
Looks like a TS, and I think might skirt south of the bigger islands. might shoot the gap btwn Jamaica and Cuba for a time before getting to Cuba.
Click to expand...

I'd imagine a weaker storm might mean she trends further south and west since the low level easterly flow has more influence over it.
 
Something to keep in mind now that the shear has torn her apart some, and it’s weaker and less organized since yesterday… the interaction with land and mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba will not have as much impact on it than if it was still a very well organized hurricane. This still needs to be watched closely to see how much time it’s in a much more favorable environment after it exits Cuba
 
Do I sound stupid if I predict a cat 1 hitting somewhere In Florida? I just feel like this thing strengthens some right off the coast of Florida before landfall. Cat 2 wouldn’t shock me but i wouldn’t predict that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top