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Tropical TS Elsa

I have a question that maybe someone with more knowledge than me could answer. Is it possible that the mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could actually help the storm develop since the center looks to missing those areas just to the south. I seem to remember another storm in the last few years that hugged the southern coast of Cuba and actually developed more convection and a better structure. Could this be to getting more rising air from the upward motion near mountains
 
Chazwin said:
I have a question that maybe someone with more knowledge than me could answer. Is it possible that the mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could actually help the storm develop since the center looks to missing those areas just to the south. I seem to remember another storm in the last few years that hugged the southern coast of Cuba and actually developed more convection and a better structure. Could this be to getting more rising air from the upward motion near mountains
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That would be Isaias from last season. Answer here is likely no however because Elsa is a small, compact, and semi-organized vortex, it has more to lose interacting w/ land compared to Isaias which was prior to developing over Hispaniola, a giant, loosely organized wave axis.
 
Still looks rough despite the convective bursts. If you notice there is almost no banding and the new burst off the tip of Haiti is moving away from the circulation not wrapping into it.
 
Chazwin said:
That track would bring a significant heavy rain threat for west I-95 in the Carolinas and a potential tornado threat in the eastern Carolinas
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Which is exactly what we need to finally end the dry conditions. Although, at least around here everything is looking really green. At least on my side of town. I'd imagine we'd have some decent wind gusts as well. Nothing crazy but definitely wind advisory criteria.
 
ryan1234 said:
Which is exactly what we need to finally end the dry conditions. Although, at least around here everything is looking really green. At least on my side of town. I'd imagine we'd have some decent wind gusts as well. Nothing crazy but definitely wind advisory criteria.
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The big question is how quickly it moves through. Right now it shows the center taking 24 hours to move from just west of Savannah to near Norfolk. That’s not fast but it’s steady… if it were to be slower, there could be some big flood concerns
 
ryan1234 said:
Which is exactly what we need to finally end the dry conditions. Although, at least around here everything is looking really green. At least on my side of town. I'd imagine we'd have some decent wind gusts as well. Nothing crazy but definitely wind advisory criteria.
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I would love the rain. No doubt! However, the posters in Greenville and surrounding areas talk of not wanting the head waters of the rivers north and west being more of an issue exasperating the excess flooding potential they're already experiencing. Sorry, to sound selfish but 1-3" wouldn't amount to much in the way of downstream flooding.
 
EV_WS said:
I would love the rain. No doubt! However, the posters in Greenville and surrounding areas talk of not wanting the head waters of the rivers north and west being more of an issue exasperating the excess flooding potential they're already experiencing. Sorry, to sound selfish but 1-3" wouldn't amount to much in the way of downstream flooding.
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River levels have really dropped and are quite normal at the time being. A fast moving elsa wouldnt complicate that situation too much even if the headwaters got a widespread 1-3
 
Shaggy said:
Still looks rough despite the convective bursts. If you notice there is almost no banding and the new burst off the tip of Haiti is moving away from the circulation not wrapping into it.
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This aged poorly .. let’s see if she can wrap up just as quick as she did the other night
 
deltadog03 said:
Now, I don't know how accurate these maps usually are....but, it *could* explain why we might be seeing a healthier version of Elsa tonight...(or trying to be one)

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Definitely a better environment that the last 24 hours. Also just plotting the track and given the forecast, the center should move over fairly flat terrain in Cuba and not be over land long at all. Once she emerges into the Gulf, there should be a decent environment and very warm water waiting.
 
so does anyone have the maps, satellite, with the NHC tracks on them? know where to find them? like the ones that NHC main page used to have.
 
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