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Tropical TS Elsa

Chazwin said:
I really don’t think any of these models are going to give a useful picture until we know exactly where the center will cross Cuba. Right now it appears that it’s heading for a crossing near the most narrow part of the island. Even though the storm has slowed, a crossing there wouldn’t damage the storm’s structure too much and then it could be off to the races once in the Gulf.
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Not really if you believe the NHC reasoning and potential for moderate shear. It should strengthen some but off the to races isn't the way they make it sound.

Lots of structural changes overnight and its gonna take some time to iron those out. Not too many 65mph storms have a pressure of 1007mb.
 
I think you get up to a Cat 1 once you get in the gulf. I still think the central and eastern panhandle is the most likely landfall location. That NHC track is still giving credit to the possibility that this thing goes into the Atlantic and I maybe completely wrong but that just looks like it’s not going to happen. Those Atlantic tracks are what’s pulling the median track further East but that just really doesn’t look very likely anymore unless something just drastically changes very very soon.
 
Chazwin said:
I really don’t think any of these models are going to give a useful picture until we know exactly where the center will cross Cuba. Right now it appears that it’s heading for a crossing near the most narrow part of the island. Even though the storm has slowed, a crossing there wouldn’t damage the storm’s structure too much and then it could be off to the races once in the Gulf.
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The storms center relocation really could be a game-changer IMO. I'm not sold on much intensification once it's in the gulf unless the storm really blows up while still in the NW Caribbean but with the center now likely to pass north of Jamaica it will have a chance to make a run in open water for as much as 24 hours in a pretty favorable environment.
 
Shaggy said:
Not really if you believe the NHC reasoning and potential for moderate shear. It should strengthen some but off the to races isn't the way they make it sound.

Lots of structural changes overnight and its gonna take some time to iron those out. Not too many 65mph storms have a pressure of 1007mb.
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Yes off to the races probably is too bullish, because I don’t think it’s going into an area that could see rapid intensification. However if it takes a more western track and ends up coming ashore closer the Big Bend as opposed to further south down the coast, that would give it a more time over the warm Gulf water… perhaps to a Category 2. Keep in mind that the Big Bend is very susceptible to storm surge and a high end category 1 or low end 2 hitting at the right angle would be very serious.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Elsa hasn’t intensified at all overnight, actually weakened slightly if anything
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Yeah looks at least a hell of a lot better on satellite but with a reformation center maybe the storm needs time to catch up .. plus new convective blob blowing up on what seems to be the new center .. time will tell if Elsa gives us a firework show or not
 
Seeing a lot more banding the past few hours. Fascinating structural changes will be most interesting later this afternoon as it pulls away from the disruption of its proximity to Jamaica.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah I think structurally it’s a lot better looking so I think we need some time for thunderstorms to bubble in that new center and I’m sure strengthening will continue
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Convective intensity or coverage doesn’t equate to intensification, the spatial pattern is just as if not more important and there are likely multiple competing surface centers. Sloppy system
 
iGRXY said:
I think you get up to a Cat 1 once you get in the gulf. I still think the central and eastern panhandle is the most likely landfall location. That NHC track is still giving credit to the possibility that this thing goes into the Atlantic and I maybe completely wrong but that just looks like it’s not going to happen. Those Atlantic tracks are what’s pulling the median track further East but that just really doesn’t look very likely anymore unless something just drastically changes very very soon.
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I agree with this actually. I also think this tracks up the middle of the Carolinas up through Columbia and up between Charlotte and Fayetteville. Of course my confidence in that low but that’s my current thinking.


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Webberweather53 said:
Convective intensity or coverage doesn’t equate to intensification, the spatial pattern is just as if not more important and there are likely multiple competing surface centers. Sloppy system
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Agreed for sure but while it doesn’t mean intensification all the time it doesn’t mean it won’t intensify if thunderstorms continue right?
While I don’t think components are working well together right now .. structurally and internally there have been a lot of changes in the storm and only time will tell if it helps it flourish or diminish
 
iGRXY said:
I think you get up to a Cat 1 once you get in the gulf. I still think the central and eastern panhandle is the most likely landfall location. That NHC track is still giving credit to the possibility that this thing goes into the Atlantic and I maybe completely wrong but that just looks like it’s not going to happen. Those Atlantic tracks are what’s pulling the median track further East but that just really doesn’t look very likely anymore unless something just drastically changes very very soon.
Click to expand...
I’m fairly certain the members that are pulling the out into the Atlantic are also holding the trough that has been going through the east up long enough to pull it in that direction. This really doesn’t have any support in the short range models that are beginning to lift the trough out now. I have a feeling we’ll see a lot fewer of these members during the 12z runs.
 
Despite what some of the weenies are wishcasting for, there's nothing to suggest this is going to takeoff anytime soon. As long as low-mid level shear remains close to 20 knots, the vortex is going to remain severely tilted, which will contribute to weakening &/or no intensification.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Despite what some of the weenies are wishcasting for, there's nothing to suggest this is going to takeoff anytime soon. As long as low-mid level shear remains close to 20 knots, the vortex is going to remain severely tilted, which will contribute to weakening &/or no intensification.
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I’m not weenie wishcasting anything I was just saying it’s a possibility lmao
 
GFS 12Z says, Macon MaulerED9B0A9B-10FE-414F-9FD5-DACB4755F55A.png8B555D6C-0C2A-40C8-A9F5-A951582F5323.png
 
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