Henry2326
Member
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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
They used to have it where you could have the NHC forecast cone over the satellite pics.
Hmm. I've never seen that one on the NHC site.
I do remember them having the forecast points on the old AVN pics, but not the cone overlayed. You're thinking it's tracking a bit left too I bet. I think it is
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Despite the impressive convection it hasn’t resulted in anything. 700mb pass even indicates it may be opening into a wave
Henry2326
Member
yes! the forecast plots on the AVN...does anyone else do that?
This is pretty cool...no matter what she is doing, she looks like she is in the process of possibly re-structuring herself...
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
Post-tropical Cyclone Elsa - Band 11 at 43.0°N - 69.5°W - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
Stormsfury
Member
Elsa is exceptionally tenacious... her ability to generate deep convection will be in her favor. The system has slowed considerably... down to 17mph which also works in her favor to allow for more vertical stacking... and a better environment to allow for the southern side to wrap up more readily
Shaggy
Member
Amazing what can happen when you drop that forward speed by as much as she did. Keep in mind most tropical systems move around 12-16mph typically.
Elsa slowed down by that much and is STILL doing 17mph. This has been a huge bump to her organization.
Shaggy
Member
Her slowing from 30mph to 17mph has made a significant difference for her organization. She looked like garbage all day and evening but she has done quite a bit of recovery over the last few hours. We will see if she sustains it..I suspect she will now that she has slowed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lesson: Deep convection doesn't always = intensification. In this case, it's an indication of arrested development/little-no intensity change as confirmed by recon.
Brent
Member
ya, I would imagine it doesn't happen often...I wonder if once it kind of goes through this phase if it helps kind of re-structure itself?
Downeastnc
Member
Henry2326
Member
Call me crazy, but has the NHC forecast moved back to 2 days ago.....
I'm not crazy....discussion
The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to
gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an
additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has
continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each
other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA
and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more
westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed
admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad
west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top
of the previous advisory track.
I'm not crazy....discussion
The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to
gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an
additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has
continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each
other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA
and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more
westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed
admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad
west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top
of the previous advisory track.
Henry2326
Member
More discussion.....looks like will eventually go vertical.
After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level
field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in
intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening
could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central
coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at
more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected
after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by
some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf
Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear
increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant
strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very
asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most
of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the
east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the
previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected
consensus models.
Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree
of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to
factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC
track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.
After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level
field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in
intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening
could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central
coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at
more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected
after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by
some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf
Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear
increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant
strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very
asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most
of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the
east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the
previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected
consensus models.
Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree
of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to
factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC
track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.
Cary_Snow95
Member
GFS has continued the weakening trend. I think the GFS is out to lunch tbh.