12z icon matches the nhc track pretty well
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think this is a big reason why Elsa is weaker this morning
Brent
Member
It's certainly possible if it can hold together slow down and get into a favorable environment. That's a lot of ifs but I would never write off a storm moving into the Gulf
We just don't know what kind of shape it'll be in. For every storm that bombed there's another one that never recovered. We'll see which side of history Elsa falls on
Jessy89
Member
Gfs is really weak further west.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,386
- Reaction score
- 9,834
Actually, about the same location at LF as 6z this morning
Not at all. It’s simply going to depend on how it looks after it exits Cuba and how long it’s over the warm Gulf waters. Obviously it will cross the Loop Current and the overall environment should be favorable for strengthening. Now if it were to come ashore near Tampa or south then there wouldn’t be as much time for it to strengthen than if it would be the Big Bend west along the Panhandle
Jessy89
Member
Yeah but when it goes inland. What’s left of the center sorta goes through Georgia and maybe up through Columbia instead of closer to the coast. That looks further west to me. But looks very weak. I don’t know I just feel we get a very lopsided 75mph cane hitting Florida or at least a 70mph storm. Gotta get this past Cuba then we get a clearer picture
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Stormsfury
Member
Despite the undercutting shear and struggles Elsa is facing right now, Elsa is absolutely tenacious and that LLC is vigorous...
In fact, the recent convective enhancement this morning maybe a bi product of convergent winds pinching between Hispaniola and Elsa herself being channeled between...
In fact, the recent convective enhancement this morning maybe a bi product of convergent winds pinching between Hispaniola and Elsa herself being channeled between...
I was just about to post that despite the overall weakening, it’s still blowing up plenty of thunderstorms. I have feeling that we are going to see news reports in the next couple days of major flooding on Hispaniola
Talk about possibly threading the needle … sheesh 
Looks like the center will definitely miss the shredder to the south, honestly that core looks solid hmmm
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,386
- Reaction score
- 9,834
This storm isn't done
BHS1975
Member
lowering shear ahead?
Yeah starting to see evidence in the satellite imagery of another explosive play hit of thunderstorms now bursting on the northern side of the circulation trying to wrap around the west side … could be an indication of shear lessening since thunderstorms have only been on the east side for a while now playing catch up
Center in black and red is the recent blow up
The Florida keys are now under a tropical storm watch.
New track
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's another tweet to add onto this thread & a process I think most of us already are aware of if you've followed TCs long enough. The flow becomes non-divergent/convergent below outflow level and TCs are less resistant to shear in the low-mid levels as result. It's also why we often look at dry air in the mid-levels (say 400-700mb relative humidity) and not above that.
Another important caveat is that while stronger TCs are better at carrying out this process, their outflow level moves up higher in the upper troposphere.