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Tropical TS Elsa

I think a shift back to the west is very possible as the ridge builds back in and the trough slips by. 18z gfs shows a NW then a WNW in the gulf allowing more of a western shift into the northern Panhandle.
 
Elsa is a bit weaker.
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
New track:
030034_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Let's hope this doesn't happen:
The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.
Click to expand...
 
GFS initialized better with the pressure but is weaker than last run so far @60 hours.
 
Of course having said that the hwrf is trending towards more land interaction in the Caribbean tonight. If you compare the runs today there has been a clear north shift away from Jamaica(hardly any land more water) and more towards Haiti and Eastern Cuba(mountains)
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
Of course having said that the hwrf is trending towards more land interaction in the Caribbean tonight. If you compare the runs today there has been a clear north shift away from Jamaica(hardly any land more water) and more towards Haiti and Eastern Cuba(mountains)
Click to expand...
Yep you’re right. 00z goes over the mountains in Hispaniola and then rides the length of Cuba. Shreds it
 
Lmao Euro woke up and has track up eastern GOM (looks weak entering, but strengthening) as it heads up into NC FL then NE.
In other words, it’s not OTS
 
deltadog03 said:
Lmao Euro woke up and has track up eastern GOM (looks weak entering, but strengthening) as it heads up into NC FL then NE.
In other words, it’s not OTS
Click to expand...
Not suprised… I think the question is at this point… what’s left of it after the shredder and how quickly does it comeback?
 
It’s looking mighty disorganized this morning. Any land interaction with Hispaniola is going to have serious impacts on its llc as its decoupled
 
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