That's a weenie argument as old as message boards very similar to my dew is 18 and 1 degree lower than forecast on Tuesday it'll be lower than the models show on Friday
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Brent
Member
Its already stronger than the NHC's 11am forecast lol
The long day in Miami continues
The long day in Miami continues
This euro run is interesting. It opens up at 850 and splits with some of the energy helping fire something up just off SC and the southern end going w near Miami 
birdman was called crazy but he may have been on to something wrt a major
BHS1975
Member
To be fair the Euro has moved left and held on to a stronger vort longer through at least the last 3 runs. But with the gfs going weaker and right you have to think we are more getting a better consensus than anything. Crazy to think the cmc might end up doing very well if you split the gfs and euro
LickWx
Member
The I told you so happens when you completely disregard the other side of things and trash the people who are on that side . It’s sad , I’ll try to hold myself if I get that chance but hey. I can’t promise
It just comes down to 2 camps. Euro weak dissipates and gfs more together. I wanna see what the EPS does. 0z had many more members in the EGOM.
I think the GFS camp is more realistic. I don’t think the Euro is that realistic.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
A gulf route would mean less island interaction .. and also remember (I forgot which storm it was) that storm in a recent season that skirted the coast of Cuba and that actually helped enhance the core? Could be an interesting analog
iGRXY
Member
That whole going through the shredder theory was already in the minority but this thing looks more and more like its going to go into the gulf and I personally think the panhandle is at much more risk than even the west coast of Florida. Also you're seeing a lot more of the spaghetti models going over georgia and the upstate so hopefully we can get a good soaking.
If this thing manages avoid any of the higher peaks of the mountains and manages to not to ride the FL coast- Elsa could definitely become a much stronger storm. Regardless, this looks like this will be a substantial rain maker for GA and the Carolina's. Which is good news. Not so sure about the winds inland, but that could become an issue too if things tend more towards a Panhandle landfall.
If it truly has a clear path through the gulf and up towards the big bend area , then you will start seeing everybody posting the over inflated NAM winds and gusts maps for the Carolinas
Brent
Member
They are still showing weakening as it approaches Florida
The thing that I’m worried about is what happens when this trough pulls out. It looks as though the trough will allow to pull north, but then the trough pulls out and the storm should move around the periphery of the Bermuda high as it builds back in. Does the storm continue to move steadily or does it slow down a lot and increase the inland flood threat
Yeah, those maps are always way overdone. But if this thing has enough forward speed and this system doesn't weaken like some modeling suggest, we could have some issues.