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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
DustinWx
Moderator
It’s obvious the nhc is playing cautious due to interaction with islands.
iGRXY
Member
Every year the NHC kinda wets the bed when forecasting hurricane strength. Can't tell you how many times we saw Tropical systems gain strength very quickly and much stronger than they predicted. Until that cycle breaks or this thing just runs over Hispaniola, I think we're going to see a hurricane make landfall somewhere in the panhandle of Florida.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think the shredder rips it apart..... we shall see.
Downeastnc
Member
St Vincent is a big risk for mudslides etc due to the volcanic activities this year.......them folks cant catch a break and this could be a long tropical season for the Antilles.
Tornadocane
Member
I just arrived home from the Publix in Cooper City with a full tank of gas, eight 24-packs of bottled water, 4 gallons more of the wet stuff, and plenty of food for my Hurricane party. This storm is moving so fast that people aren't going to have time to (or just won't) prepare during the July 4th weekend. So there's no time to F around.
Interesting, how much does rapid forward speed affect those winds in the NE quadrant? I mean as Allan notes this is TS type pressures
BHS1975
Member
Yeah that track is too close to the highest peaks.
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Avalanche
Member
This will get the job done!!!!
It adds if I'm not mistaken
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno, unless the entire inner core is not disrupted then the storm can find ways to survive......or even strengthen even with part of the circulation disrupted over land etc...In this case the fast forward speed would mitigate weakening over Cuba. Then it has a solid day and a half over water before landfall again in Florida....this could easily be a cane hitting Florida.
I see a 998?
Cary_Snow95
Member
It got taken while the plane was rising in elevation. Contaminated numbers. Another dropsonde into the core just now got 1003
BHS1975
Member
I sure hope the fleet is in good shape this year as they will be slammed.
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Brent
Member
Ugh remember all the problems last year. Those planes are older than some of us
Josh knows best .. he’s been seeing what I’ve been seeing in models with regard to strictly tropical systems 
Pressure down to 995
11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.4°N 61.2°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.4°N 61.2°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
