Avalanche
Member
That recurve, unless it goes straight northward from there, does us no good, and puts extreme eastern NC in bad shape for additional rain they don't need. How are the lowlands of SC rain wise? Might be needed for them.
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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
A track only 50mi to the left has huge ramifications for Florida. Likewise, 50mi to the right and it's shrederolla time.
Shaggy
Member
One note from the disco is the poorly defined circulation at 700mb. If that doesn't improve and the LLC gets hit hard over Hispaniola then dissipation or extreme weakening is still on the table IMO
Downeastnc
Member
Honestly its better for us to get the rain here than inland over north central and central NC, east of here the rivers really dont flood from rain as its all wetlands and coastal marshes. Flash flooding would be a issue but we wont see bit river rise with rain over us or to the east. Farmers would lose out though but many of them are already losing a lot of crops to flooded fields. Wind wouldnt probably be a big issue though saturated ground might lead to more than average trees down from a 40-50 mph type system.
Say what you want about Elsa .. right now she’s beautiful .. not perfect but she has a much wider and more symmetrical cloud pattern which will only help her in the future battle problems such as dry air and shear .. the shredder shreds though not much can protect that .. unless of course she skirts around it … I think we see at least some strengthening later today as she won’t have to worry about the shredder yet
Uh oh Gfs coming in .. weak .. this is usually when the euro goes boom haha
The GFS also has the track shooting the gap between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. It must be forecasting some serious shear because that track is a worse-case scenario for Florida.
Gfs is stretching the mid level vortices this run, its also picking up on shear near Cuba from the lopsided qpf field. It'll probably go bonkers in the gulf since the model will probably bomb convection upshear and feed back on that.
Yeah it's not bad with the outflow channel to the north and the system movement with the shear. I'm just not sure how much of a system will be left then. If we start to decouple or open up the mid levels can the sfc circulation rebuild itself
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This storm is stupid
Bryan9451
Member
Just curious but I'd be in the mindset that if this thing develops into a strong hurricane then it would be towards the big bend or perhaps even further west. You seem to think if it develops into a strong hurricane it'll hit Tampa. Can you help me understand why? I've got a family vacation to PCB starting on Tuesday so I am hoping you are correct!!
Cary_Snow95
Member
I see people saying the data collected this morning was garbage and thats why that run was weak
The stronger the storm, the deeper the storm is vertically. A stronger storm will feel the weakness faster and be steered more eastward as it rounds the Atlantic ridge. A very strong hurricane can push farther westward in certain conditions but unless the Ridge is stronger it should move more eastward.
Now if this bombs out into a major hurricane for some reason in the next day, it may change some things.
HWRF just went bonkers. It showed a 954 mb hurricane @72 hours.
Jessy89
Member
I’m not gonna comment on the strength this will be. But I’m pretty sure of a Florida landfall somewhere. May still have shifts west or east but I don’t think it misses Florida.
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I don't recall any storm in this part of the Caribbean moving westward this fast. And most certainly none that looks as organized as this one.