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Tropical TS Elsa

Tarheel1 said:
If it truly has a clear path through the gulf and up towards the big bend area , then you will start seeing everybody posting the over inflated NAM winds and gusts maps for the Carolinas
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Nam didn’t do to bad with zeta! That one was quite windy well inland


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Arcc said:
I’m not quite sold on intensity. The VDM I’m looking at still does not list an eyewall and banding around the center is still lackluster on IR. I’m gonna wait and see if it can sustain intensity for a bit before I start guessing on farther intensification.
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Cant help but think about that part in the 11am of a poorly defined 700mb center. Until this thing slows down I personally believe theres still room for rapid weakening in the event of major wind interaction or decoupling. Wouldnt take much. Of course on the flip side if it develops a better upper circulation and stays stacked then strengthening more is also possible.
 
Shaggy said:
Cant help but think about that part in the 11am of a poorly defined 700mb center. Until this thing slows down I personally believe theres still room for rapid weakening in the event of major wind interaction or decoupling. Wouldnt take much. Of course on the flip side if it develops a better upper circulation and stays stacked then strengthening more is also possible.
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Agreed but can’t help but think about the past days euro and gfs runs .. whos has been more “right” euro barely showed any development and we have a hurricane today …
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Agreed but can’t help but think about the past days euro and gfs runs .. whos has been more “right” euro barely showed any development and we have a hurricane today …
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This is true, however you can have have an intensity burst without organization such as intensity increases when you have a strong convective burst due to shear and then wanes as the burst dissipates. In this case you can’t really blame the models or use it to discount future intensity or track.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Agreed but can’t help but think about the past days euro and gfs runs .. whos has been more “right” euro barely showed any development and we have a hurricane today …
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Sure the euro has not been good at all in those regards but current real time data shows some serious vulnerabilities with this system as it approaches some pretty significant shear.

A storm moving west at 20mph into 20kts of northwesterly shear is going to have serious issues.
 
Shaggy said:
Cant help but think about that part in the 11am of a poorly defined 700mb center. Until this thing slows down I personally believe theres still room for rapid weakening in the event of major wind interaction or decoupling. Wouldnt take much. Of course on the flip side if it develops a better upper circulation and stays stacked then strengthening more is also possible.
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Yeah we should know which direction the current intensification cycle will go. If sustained banding develops along with an eyewall we can start looking at the HWRF being believable if it doesn’t it could weaken rapidly.
 
Brent said:
Fun fact if Elsa forms in the next few days it'll be a record for early(which was set last year...)


A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that are starting to show some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20
mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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I'm guessing you meant the earliest 5th named storm in a season?
 
Elsa is falling apart. Its vertical structure looks like the Leaning Tower of Pisa if it had been stacked it upon multiple other towers slanting towards varying directions. The circulation of higher and lower cloud tops aren't aligned anymore. The 500Mb low is influenced towards the NW, the 700Mb is lopsided way east, and the 925 Mb looks like its stretched south.
 
Tornadocane said:
Elsa is falling apart. Its vertical structure looks like the Leaning Tower of Pisa if it had been stacked it upon multiple other towers slanting towards varying directions. The circulation of higher and lower cloud tops aren't aligned anymore. The 500Mb low is influenced towards the NW, the 700Mb is lopsided way east, and the 925 Mb looks like its stretched south.
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Recent blow up of thunderstorms just popped and is spinning around again … should maintain hurricane strength
 
Henry2326 said:
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Yep small core = significant shifts in strength either way and also makes it hard for global resolution models to pick up on the exultation as well.. seeing an eastward shift in guidance for sure tonight but don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing long term
 
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