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Tropical TS Elsa

NickyBGuarantee said:
Definitely looks more pretty on radar .. crazy I’ve seen cat 1 hurricanes even cat 2 that look worse than that core.. on satellite though .. eh
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This storm has definitely been very resilient. That shear the other night should have ripped her apart, but it hung in there. With that core intact getting to a 80-85mph cat 1 seems very possible. At least we know from the infrared that she’s not gonna go crazy and do a Charley before landfall
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Definitely looks more pretty on radar .. crazy I’ve seen cat 1 hurricanes even cat 2 that look worse than that core.. on satellite though .. eh
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Yep, I would agree. It looks pretty good on radar, on satellite, not so much.

Good thing there was that shear yesterday and based off the satellite presentation, it shouldn't strengthen too much more.
 
accu35 said:
Let it go as it falling apart or strengthen? Looks further west to me
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Definitely strengthening some and looks on radar to have developed a decent looking northern and northeastern “eye wall”…. it’s moving so straight north so that heaviest area looks like it could rake right over St. Petersburg later tonight
 
I don’t think it get to cat 2. But it may get to 80-85mph


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Seems more often than not these tropical systems get stronger right before landfall the past few years.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sooooo euro isn’t as crazy as we thought then
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No way this thing gets as strong as the EURO wanted to make it earlier today. 982 mb is a solid category 2. However it does appear that it might make landfall as it’s still strengthening, and as parts of the se NC coast learned last year that can have a big impact on wind and surge. The Big Bend is an area that geographically is very prone to surge.
 
Chazwin said:
Definitely strengthening some and looks on radar to have developed a decent looking northern and northeastern “eye wall”…. it’s moving so straight north so that heaviest area looks like it could rake right over St. Petersburg later tonight
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Could be wrong but looked weaker to me in that loop. Circulation opens up and widens and convection up shear gets blown off to the east
 
Chazwin said:
No way this thing gets as strong as the EURO wanted to make it earlier today. 982 mb is a solid category 2. However it does appear that it might make landfall as it’s still strengthening, and as parts of the se NC coast learned last year that can have a big impact on wind and surge. The Big Bend is an area that geographically is very prone to surge.
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Oh wow I didn’t know the euro got that low I haven’t really been paying attention to this storm lol
 
Shaggy said:
Gonna need a new convective burst near or over the center soon to maintain any strengthening IMO.
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Agreed… which the way this thing has kept firing convection, you would think it’s got a decent chance.
 
Yeah like I thought earlier this thing is losing it’s spunk fast … radar doesn’t look as impressive and data from planes doesn’t support a hurricane right now … she’s begging for another blow up of convection .. we will see what happens but it’s going to be down hill from here on if she can’t keep it up
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah like I thought earlier this thing is losing it’s spunk fast … radar doesn’t look as impressive and data from planes doesn’t support a hurricane right now … she’s begging for another blow up of convection .. we will see what happens but it’s going to be down hill from here on if she can’t keep it up
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As she begins to speed up some on a orth heading theres the slight chance as she moves faster she may be able to stick closer to the storms. Its a craps shoot really if she can maintain this till landfall.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Little shocked by there change to keep it a tropical storm all the way to the ne. I really can’t imagine it maintaining tropical storm strength by the time it reaches NC
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If the gradient they mention is legit then it will be breezy for sure.

Fran was a good example as the winds on her east side were quite strong and far spread due to the strong high to her east.
 
Elsa's collapse this evening looks like a pretty classic case of shear-induced dry air intrusion. A weak, strongly tilted vortex like Elsa's in conjunction with very dry air and strong (20-25 kt) shear to advect that dry air into the core is usually how something like this happens.

 
Great news for @pcbjr as I'm sure he's relieved though still wary of what she may still do in his area. If Phil is reading this: don't get complacent.

Now I can say that the Euro was a complete fail with its ~982 mb runs.
 
Downgraded

...ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
Brent said:
Downgraded

...ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Yeah no storms could maintain over the center. Should make landfall over the eastern side of the big bend.
 
06z Hrrr really increases the windfield albeit weak as it moves into NC and begins transitioning to ET. Winds 20-30 with some gusts seems reasonable.
 
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