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Tropical TS Elsa

Cary_Snow95 said:
It’s looking mighty disorganized this morning. Any land interaction with Hispaniola is going to have serious impacts on its llc as its decoupled
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Honestly mountain terrain might not disrupt a super weak system like it would a strong and put together one .. all in all Elsa looks to be a dud but possibly a well needed rain maker
 
I had a made a couple posts yesterday about the possibility of decoupling or major effects of shear. To be honest I'm not sure I've seen a storm move at 30mph and survive let alone strengthen into a cane. While it was impressive it appears its luck ran out and cred to the euro showing a highly disorganized system.
 
Shaggy said:
I had a made a couple posts yesterday about the possibility of decoupling or major effects of shear. To be honest I'm not sure I've seen a storm move at 30mph and survive let alone strengthen into a cane. While it was impressive it appears its luck ran out and cred to the euro showing a highly disorganized system.
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Ehhh euro didn’t call this it missed the whole day of it actually becoming a hurricane if anything it was a mix of euro and Gfs that ended up being correct but by no means did the euro do well here at all
 
Shaggy said:
I had a made a couple posts yesterday about the possibility of decoupling or major effects of shear. To be honest I'm not sure I've seen a storm move at 30mph and survive let alone strengthen into a cane. While it was impressive it appears its luck ran out and cred to the euro showing a highly disorganized system.
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Of course as we say that it’s firing deep convection
 
Looks like a TS, and I think might skirt south of the bigger islands. might shoot the gap btwn Jamaica and Cuba for a time before getting to Cuba.
 
deltadog03 said:
Looks like a TS, and I think might skirt south of the bigger islands. might shoot the gap btwn Jamaica and Cuba for a time before getting to Cuba.
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I'd imagine a weaker storm might mean she trends further south and west since the low level easterly flow has more influence over it.
 
Something to keep in mind now that the shear has torn her apart some, and it’s weaker and less organized since yesterday… the interaction with land and mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba will not have as much impact on it than if it was still a very well organized hurricane. This still needs to be watched closely to see how much time it’s in a much more favorable environment after it exits Cuba
 
Do I sound stupid if I predict a cat 1 hitting somewhere In Florida? I just feel like this thing strengthens some right off the coast of Florida before landfall. Cat 2 wouldn’t shock me but i wouldn’t predict that


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