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Tropical TS Elsa

metwannabe said:
Still elongated lopsided system this morning and it's nice can track it on radar now.

And notice the 5 am advisory has hurricane watches up for big bend of Fl in case it can get it's act together before LF
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Yeah still obviously not stacked.....nice flare up with the MLC ongoing but as long as it is not stacked it wont do or mean much....
 
Looks like what is left of Elsa could go right over me Thursday, or at least be very close. Not a fan. Olaf was always the best part anyway.
 
The best thing that might come from this is a day off work Thursday. Fingers crossed.
 
metwannabe said:
What would really be interesting and throw a massive curve ball (track wise) is if the LLC got "sucked" under that deep convection.
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This has almost started being shown in some of the guidance .. it ramps the system up and pops that center way closer to the coast around Tampa bay and then weakens since it’s close proximity to the coast or maybe it landfalls there and rides the coast before then making its way up towards us .. we will watch on radar
 
Fortunately, there’s no worry about anything even approaching rapid intensification as shear should prevent that. This remains nicely tilted. Good news for @pcbjr and others although this has always been expected/forecasted. The 12Z Euro yesterday getting her down into the 980s is going to look really bad barring something totally unforeseen.
But still plenty of weather associated with this over much of the SE! It will obviously be a pretty big deal. I’m not trying to downplay it. I’m just trying to downplay the Euro’s silliness.

This will go a long ways toward keeping away SE drought and the associated threat of a heatwave. That’s the best news about this.
 
LLC almost exposed now, so it's not going to get "sucked" under that convection.... this is most likely why models actually pull it NNW and keep it away from the coastline of Fl until the big bend area
 
GaWx said:
Fortunately, there’s no worry about anything even approaching rapid intensification as shear should prevent that. This remains nicely tilted. Good news for @pcbjr and others although this has always been expected/forecasted. The 12Z Euro yesterday getting her down into the 980s is going to look really bad barring something totally unforeseen.
But still plenty of weather associated with this over much of the SE! It will obviously be a pretty big deal. I’m not trying to downplay it. I’m just trying to downplay the Euro’s silliness.

This will go a long ways toward keeping away SE drought and the associated threat of a heatwave. That’s the best news about this.
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Maybe east of I-95, but the rest of NC and SC will be going into a drought before summer is over unless things change. It will also get warmer too with triple digits possible.
 
metwannabe said:
LLC almost exposed now, so it's not going to get "sucked" under that convection.... this is most likely why models actually pull it NNW and keep it away from the coastline of Fl until the big bend area
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Think the nams may be too far west with the tracks. If they are right though that certainly helps the areas west that need more rain in NC/SC and would maybe make the tornado threat a little higher.

For Florida impacts it might mean a little more surge into the big bend but not too bad
 
@pcbjr and others especially to the right of the projected path in FL, batten down the hatches for heavy rain, trees and limbs down from gusty winds into the 40s+, power outages, and the threat of tornadoes/severe thunderstorms. Parts of GA/SC/NC will be at risk Wed-Thu.
 
From NWS in Jacksonville, FL, this covers the area where @pcbjr lives: (Alachua county). Note how much rainfall his area has had recently:

WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY WHICH INDICATES AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL. IN ADDITION
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL AS A
LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST IN STRONGER CONVECTION FROM
GAINESVILLE TO MARINELAND SOUTHWARD WHERE 0-3 KM SRH NEARS 200 M2/S2 THROUGH 02Z. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, USE THIS MORNING TO FINALIZE STORM PREPARATIONS FOR
ELSA.

ELSA APPROACHES THE FL BIG BEND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WITH
IMPACTS OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.
PERSISTENT RAIN WITH GUSTY SQUALLS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERSPREAD
OUR SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF NE FL THROUGH SUNRISE WED, PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA THROUGH WED EVENING AS ELSA BEGINS TO TRACK
MORE NNE. THE HAZARDS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ELSA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED BELOW:

1. FLOODING RAINFALL: THIS IS THE GREAT WIDESPREAD THREAT TO THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH WED EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF ELSA, AND THEN HEAVY RAINFALL
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING AS ELSA TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MOST OF NE FL AND INLAND SE GA HAS RECEIVED
200-400% OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS, AND WITH AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST OF 2-4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE, A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

2. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS: THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM WINDS CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING MARION, GILCHRIST AND ALACHUA
COUNTIES. PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS BANDS OF STRONG
GUSTY SQUALLS INCREASE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
AREA OF POTENTIAL TS FORCE WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER THE SE GA COAST
THROUGH WED AS ELSA'S CIRCULATION TRACKS NNE, JUST INLAND OF THE
GOLDEN ISLES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF INLAND NE FL LATER THIS MORNING. FOR ALL AREAS, EVEN OUTSIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS, IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS AS SQUALLS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

3. BEACH HAZARDS: RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
LOCAL COASTLINE LATER TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
HIGHLIGHTED. BY WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
AND DANGEROUS, ROUGH SURF WITH BREAKERS NEAR 7-8 FT POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. BEACH-GOERS SHOULD NO VENTURE IN THE SURF WEDNESDAY.

4. ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS: LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN FL ZONES AS WELL AS ALONG THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST,
EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE
GA THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
FOCUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN GA ZONES INTO WED EVENING, WITH A
DECREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES ACROSS NE FL. CHECK THAT YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIOS ARE IN GOOD WORKING ORDER TODAY IN CASE TORNADO
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
 
GaWx said:
@pcbjr and others especially to the right of the projected path in FL, batten down the hatches for heavy rain, trees and limbs down from gusty winds into the 40s+, power outages, and the threat of tornadoes/severe thunderstorms. Parts of GA/SC/NC will be at risk Wed-Thu.
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So there's still a chance my office could close Thursday.
 
CLT might get a direct pass from Elsa! I think they may have to close some offices, but RAH will barely get sprinkles, business as usual
 
Looks like pressure down to around 999-1000 MB, surface wind speeds around 60-65 on the NW ( naked ) side actually pretty impressive.....NE quad might be enough to call this a cane ( or at least a halfacane )
 
Fro special on 12Z GFS45BC8742-63DB-46A5-BE42-D586ED91E1CE.png
 
Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...

Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate
advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for
a portion of the west coast of Florida.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
Hurricane warning coming for portions of the west florida coast.
Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...

Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate
advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for
a portion of the west coast of Florida.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin
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Downeastnc said:
Looks like pressure down to around 999-1000 MB, surface wind speeds around 60-65 on the NW ( naked ) side actually pretty impressive.....NE quad might be enough to call this a cane ( or at least a halfacane )
Click to expand...

If the Euro somehow gets this right in the E Gulf and makes me eat crow…….

But I’m not too worried yet as it has her getting way down to 982 mb vs the current 1,000 mb and the storm continues to be lopsided/sheared.
 
Tarheel1 said:
CLT might get a direct pass from Elsa! I think they may have to close some offices, but RAH will barely get sprinkles, business as usual
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I thought the NAM was the only model suggesting this? And if so, then it's pretty much on it's own island in that regard.
 
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