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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Brent
Member
The NHC track hasn't moved much maybe a tad west
Cary_Snow95
Member
Pretty big move west over the Carolinas tho
That’ll make for at least a breezy day in NC.. I’m thirsty for it
As per my earlier thinking 
And from officials 
They're pretty much ignoring the out to lunch (imo) 12Z Euro much higher intensity.
Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS continues a GFS run to run trend of a slower movement north offshore W FL.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I hope CLT specifically floods
Structurally on satellite Elsa looks pretty good with good banding features and cloud expansion in all quadrants… obviously we’re over land right now so nothing spectacular to look at but once it reaches the gulf .. will be interesting to see how convection could wrap .. or maybe she stays east side lopsided with convection .. tomorrow will be interesting 
LickWx
Member
Maybe I’m not as well versed but that looks bad lol. Looks like a blob of tumors or something .
Henry2326
Member
We've been here a thousand times, waiting to see which one plays out. The great thing is that location has been consistent for a couple of days and we are talking about minimal damage impact not a cat3 or 4.
Henry2326
Member
This is the 12z Euro wind forecast which we can assume is worse case. 50-60 mph winds into South GA.
Interesting. Little jet streak aloft with divergence on the euro strengthens it inland 
That makes sense, though I wouldn’t trust any crazy wind maps for inland areas on the EURO. This could make for some issues at coastal areas from the OBX to New England… almost like a nor’easter
While yes they will probably be worst case scenario winds .. involving a jet streak scenario (which I feel we get a lot of recently) would make gusts and such probably more frequent and give more credence to some possible wind damage mainly from toppling trees that have been sitting in 2-3 inches of rain .. again just something to watch as models come closer to game time .. nothing to worry about as of right now
Shaggy
Member
Some areas have had a lot of rain and could see some issues with loose soil.
NCSNOW
Member
King seems to really struggle with TC genesis, weak sauce, unorganized tropical entities. Get a wound up storm and normally euro figures it out within 1 to 3 model cycles. I have no data to suport my statement, just a stereotype ive assigned to it watching models while tracking storms over years.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
I agree. We’ve seen it a number of times the last few years. When Michael first formed in 2018, the EURO didn’t ever have it going above TS strength even though all other modeling was screaming that it could be a big one. Laura last year was another that stood out, but with both of those, once the storm got going, it locked in a solution and was very solid
With grain of salt, but here is current steering map.
This doesn’t really scream shear to me .. what am I missing
There is some shear from the SW. looked like 15-20kt. That map shows me it should climb the coast of FL (offshore) until maybe big bend area?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I made another cool mini-movie for you guys. This concept of upshear convective bursts and vortex tilting is a hard one to grasp (& I never really understood it until a few years ago tbh), but hopefully this fills in a lot of missing holes/links for everyone!
Shaggy
Member
How much would that shear effect it since it will be moving N then NE in the same direction as the shear. Shouldn't that lesson the effect of the shear to some degree.
Brad still holding down the fort on little impacts for anyone west of I-95 … I’m surprised how quick will he change his tune? Only time will tell
I agree with him in terms of wind impacts being confined east of I-95… I think that’s a coastal issue only. However he’s still holding out on very little rainfall west of I-95, and that makes absolutely no sense… even the WPC has 2 inches plus of rainfall now backed up to the very eastern portion of Union, east Stanly, Anson, and Richmond counties… this is the eastern portion of his viewing area.
Lol 3k NAM takes center over Charlotte and keeps most rain in western Carolina's.
That Euro track looking good though!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like the good ole 11th hour NW adjustments are underway. Just how far is the question.
Don't look at the 6z Icon. Still several options on the table, but the far east tracks are looking less likely right now. Hopefully, many of us get a good rainfall.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
For sure. Waiting to see what the 06Z euro shows but the 0Z euro was a pretty big jump west from the 18Z run.
What's the best site for that? Or is it only pay per view?
I think pay per view only however weather nerds has the 06 & 18z EPS
Yep heaviest rain axis in western central NC with an honestly large swath of gusty winds for much of the state .. if we took the 3km verbatim
Even though it’s obviously not a tropical model, I wouldn’t completely count out the NAM3k’s track. The more that trough to the NW slows, the more westerly track this will take inland.
While true long range NAM 3km does not have a good track record .. it’s like the long range HRRR .. they can definitely give you clues about the general trend location of rain and stuff
Still elongated lopsided system this morning and it's nice can track it on radar now.
And notice the 5 am advisory has hurricane watches up for big bend of Fl in case it can get it's act together before LF
And notice the 5 am advisory has hurricane watches up for big bend of Fl in case it can get it's act together before LF