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Tropical TS Elsa

12Z Euro doesn’t have that fictional inland strengthening near the FL/GA border that prior runs had.

I just heard that @pcbjr office is closed tomorrow. Interesting, yes, but not fun times for Phil right now.
 
NHC now has Elsa regaining hurricane strength.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane
before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa
moves inland by late Wednesday.
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it’s 2 PM
 
Looks like she’s trying to hang onto those thunderstorms by a single cumulonimbus cloud and any second could rip her away .. she needs another thunderstorm cluster8CCC86B6-C10E-443A-AEB5-B32B15E0CE97.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Probably bump it to cane after the NE quad pass, especially if the center pressure has dropped any....
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Impressive for a system that is not vertically stacked, nice mid level rotation tilted NE from the LLC..... not sure it can get stacked with that shear
 
metwannabe said:
Impressive for a system that is not vertically stacked, nice mid level rotation tilted NE from the LLC..... not sure it can get stacked with that shear
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At least no time soon, its probably a good thing though....some legit strong TS/weak cane conditions on that east side though no matter what they call it.
 
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12Z UKMET is a little stronger in E GOM vs its 0Z run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.07.2021 0 24.6N 83.4W 1009 36
0000UTC 07.07.2021 12 26.1N 83.4W 1005 42
1200UTC 07.07.2021 24 28.4N 84.0W 1002 47
0000UTC 08.07.2021 36 30.4N 83.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 08.07.2021 48 32.5N 82.1W 999 36
0000UTC 09.07.2021 60 34.8N 79.3W 998 38
1200UTC 09.07.2021 72 37.0N 75.4W 988 58
0000UTC 10.07.2021 84 39.5N 71.2W 988 61
1200UTC 10.07.2021 96 43.0N 65.6W 995 46
0000UTC 11.07.2021 108 47.0N 57.7W 1001 40
1200UTC 11.07.2021 120 50.9N 46.9W 1004 32
0000UTC 12.07.2021 132 POST-TROPICAL
 
Cane force flight level winds, surface winds right there on the edge, slightly improving structure, pressure down a bit... it might be able to get a decent core together enough to give someplace in FL a legit cane hit tomorrow....

recon_AF302-1305A-ELSA_timeseries.png
 
As much as she is holding onto dear life I have a feeling prior to landfall she gets ripped from the main convective blob and she’ll have to start all over again .. probably weakening upon arrival vs strengthening upon arrival .. still could be classified as a hurricane as the impacts would stay the same regardless but definitely sloppy seconds .. at least josh is chasing it .. I love seeing his analysis and funny chaser talk when it comes to these types of systems
 
3cace80dd56254c62dcf61b3671abce6.jpg

First spinoff band is approaching Bradenton. Winds are relatively calm for now and it feels like soup outside.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Long range HRRR 18z looks like quite a rough day on Thursday for us in the Carolinas .. gusty winds some pockets where we could see some enhanced tornado threats and lots of heavy rain already from Charlotte to Raleigh to Fayetteville.. of course it’s also the long range HRRR so we got time to work out details
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Long range HRRR 18z looks like quite a rough day on Thursday for us in the Carolinas .. gusty winds some pockets where we could see some enhanced tornado threats and lots of heavy rain already from Charlotte to Raleigh to Fayetteville.. of course it’s also the long range HRRR so we got time to work out details
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There’s no way that’s right. CLT will see no effects. Brad P said so
 
metwannabe said:
LLC seems to have disappeared under that cdo that is expanding west, Elsa is tenacious that's for sure
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Still exposed to the southwest but CDO certainly trying to expand westward .. should sneak under completely over the next couple hours if it can keep expanding and generating thunderstorms .. I have my doubts but she’s trying her darn tooting hardest at the moment
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Still exposed to the southwest but CDO certainly trying to expand westward .. should sneak under completely over the next couple hours if it can keep expanding and generating thunderstorms .. I have my doubts but she’s trying her darn tooting hardest at the moment
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She definitely isn't giving up
 
B Rad , decisiveness as usual!687868E4-69A1-4C84-A352-9BA657F9C57C.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
B Rad , decisiveness as usual!View attachment 86224
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I was just about to post … now he finally brings in the option of this possibly moving west … could go East tho WHO THE HELL KNOWS is his take here ?? by tomorrow he’ll say “very rainy to start the day watch for flash flooding and the potential for a few tornadoes in the viewing area could be a bit gusty as well! Could go east though”
 
In all seriousness, tone down the met bashing please. I know we tolerate a bunch, I mean a bunch, of off topic post on here but I also know we've asked to keep the negative met talk to a minimum. Or at least do so in the whamby thread and in such a way that isn't so negative or could be viewed as a turn off to the site. Thanks!
 
One thing that people are not referencing here is the fact that the shear that's over Elsa isn't completely dehabilitating...

In fact, the diffluent flow is likely enhancing convection, and there may be some baroclinicity at play here. The EURO I THINK is picking up on this but a bit too extreme here. However, that being said... ELSA has never had any problem generating convection (she's had that going for her the whole time).

She certainly has a much larger circulation envelope than the last time I looked yesterday...but still basically a half a system storm
 
I certainly would not be surprised if she regains hurricane stength. She is certainly looking better and is trying.
 
metwannabe said:
In all seriousness, tone down the met bashing please. I know we tolerate a bunch, I mean a bunch, of off topic post on here but I also know we've asked to keep the negative met talk to a minimum. Or at least do so in the whamby thread and in such a way that isn't so negative or could be viewed as a turn off to the site. Thanks!
Click to expand...
I do apologize. I actually really like Brad a lot. I think he and Matthew East are the two best mets in the CLT by far. I just wish he would leave some wiggle room in his statements when it comes to impacts from tropical systems… he’s been burned a few times over the last few years from statements he’s made too far out to be so certain.
 
Chazwin said:
I do apologize. I actually really like Brad a lot. I think he and Matthew East are the two best mets in the CLT by far. I just wish he would leave some wiggle room in his statements when it comes to impacts from tropical systems… he’s been burned a few times over the last few years from statements he’s made too far out to be so certain.
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No problem and I don't have an issue with questioning his forecast, it just becomes over kill at times..... and frankly you never know who is reading the site
 
metwannabe said:
LLC seems to have disappeared under that cdo that is expanding west, Elsa is tenacious that's for sure
Click to expand...

A storm moving west at 30mph in the Carbbean into 10-15kts of westerly shear should have been cut in half and dead but Elsa beat it all and is looking slightly better despite all her roadblocks.
 
Chazwin said:
I do apologize. I actually really like Brad a lot. I think he and Matthew East are the two best mets in the CLT by far. I just wish he would leave some wiggle room in his statements when it comes to impacts from tropical systems… he’s been burned a few times over the last few years from statements he’s made too far out to be so certain.
Click to expand...

I think Brad is fantastic! Unfortunately, he has such a huge media presence and is well known not just in the QC but around the SE. And he has been burned by his forecast (especially the 2017 snowstorm) that never materialized. I mean people were literally cussing him out. Since then, I think he just plays things ultra conservative when it comes to his forecasts.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHE
 
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt.
A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern
United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.
 
Tree crushing rain, then Oregon heat! ???3A500EF6-DDF8-484E-854F-2C2D9107D311.png
 
18Z GFS65E2A509-98F2-478A-8C41-79B6A6E0E468.png3ACA147D-253B-47BE-8EF2-447B7087A983.png
 
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