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Tropical TS Elsa

The National Hurricane Center finally adjusted the track westward bringing the center of the remnants almost directly over the triangle.
 
ncskywarn said:
The National Hurricane Center finally adjusted the track westward bringing the center of the remnants almost directly over the triangle.
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Yeah hrrr is furthest east right now and the 3knam is way out to the west. Central or eastern piedmont certainly seems solid for a decent rain event. New convective burst has started so it might hold intensity until landfall. Who knows with this storm it's been so up and down.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah hrrr is furthest east right now and the 3knam is way out to the west. Central or eastern piedmont certainly seems solid for a decent rain event. New convective burst has started so it might hold intensity until landfall. Who knows with this storm it's been so up and down.
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Some lightning around the center now so it's definitely trying one last time before LF, but running out of time
 
From what it looks like Elsa tracks right over me and @SD cant be more bullseye than that .. all about now casting now .. hrrr had some gusty winds even up to 40 mph with the heaviest bands
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
From what it looks like Elsa tracks right over me and @SD cant be more bullseye than that .. all about now casting now .. hrrr had some gusty winds even up to 40 mph with the heaviest bands
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Most coastal plains counties have been added to the TS watch area. We may see some gusts to 40mph but I have my doubts unless we get really heavy bands or some baroclinic help.
 
metwannabe said:
@Shaggy @Downeastnc @WeatherNC if these latest model trends hold, Elsa may spare y'all from those tropical rains that you surely don't need.
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Luckily its fast moving we dont need a lot of rain on the headwaters....ground here is pretty dry, ditches have emptied etc..... actually have not had much rain the last week or so....I want to see some kind of jet enhancement to give us some decent winds but probably wont even get that.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not a hurricane model, but that aNAM tho!
Brad NamovitchView attachment 86260
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It carries her way up.due north into Georgia. I think we will know by this evening if she is turning more NNE or staying more due north. Will likely be a nowcasting scenario.

So far the 12z Hrrr starts that turn just over the Georgia state line so its much sooner than the 3k
 
ryan1234 said:
The NAM has been persistent with a westerly track since yesterday. I don't know how much I trust it though... But it hasn't budged.
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I would never advise going with the NAM for a tropical system, especially when it goes way against NHC guidance.

That being said, we may see some more slight west shifts before all is said and done.
 
Jesus this thing looks more impressive in the Carolinas than it does at landfall .. this could maybe cause some actual issues .. not 80 mph gust issues but the HRRR gusts are approaching 40-50 mph here and they are fanning out as well 97C2439E-734F-4770-AE8A-5CA2FF108BEE.png1A92797D-AB17-46DB-98B8-A6957C13668F.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not a hurricane model, but that aNAM tho!
Brad NamovitchView attachment 86260
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Regardless of where this goes (I still think probably between Charlotte and Raleigh) those outer bands on the north and east side of the storm are going to bring a tornado threat .. I would be interested to see what the experimental tornado outlook looks like that someone in here posts some times that thing is oddly spot on a lot of the time
 
Downeastnc said:
Luckily its fast moving we dont need a lot of rain on the headwaters....ground here is pretty dry, ditches have emptied etc..... actually have not had much rain the last week or so....I want to see some kind of jet enhancement to give us some decent winds but probably wont even get that.
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Unfortunately I do think y’all see decent tropical outer and rains at the least similar to what the HRRR is spitting out .. luckily you are right that this thing is a fast mover and lack of rain past few days means this shouldn’t be too terrible but tropical systems are always tricky
 
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HRRR track would be interesting here, wind gust 45-50 for most of NC east of I 95 for 4-5 hrs tomorrow afternoon.....not sure how overdone that may be but the setup with the gradient etc could be enough to make those wind speeds doable.
 
Not sure why people think this is a weak hurricane. The Weather Channel said Elsa was unleashing its fury on Florida with damaging flooding and winds.
 
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