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Tropical TS Elsa

I think areas east from Spartanburg county, Laurens county, and Greenwood county could get into some really beneficial inch or 2 of rain. Closer you get to 77 the more rainfall. The NHC was way too stubborn in shifting the track west even with a ton of guidance showing that and continuing to show it. A track up through Columbia is likely but could be 20-30 miles west or east of there. That will determine whether those West of 77 get hardly any rain, 1-2", or even 2-4" out of this.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and fairly close to NHC track....
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Gust to 40ish on it so maybe we do see some gust 40-50 mph even off the water in eastern NC tomorrow.....it just hard to say with these rem lows, most of the time we never hit what the models show so probably more realistic is 30-35 mph gust at best lol. I mean they are like snowstorms they rarely overperform versus modeling...
 
Well it looks like Brad P is finally caving. Could get the link to post, but he just posted on Facebook a short term flash flood threat for tomorrow especially the eastern portion of CLT metro
 
12z NAM3k made a pretty significant Eastward adjustment. The 3k and HRRR are in fairly strong agreement on track, potential QPF etc.

Historically, when models and NWS disagree on track - I side with NWS. Not only are they the experts, but tend to be far more accurate.

HRRR and 3k both keep CLT with 1-1.25 QPF verbatim. Lee County (Sanford) & Raleigh-Durham both with nice potential for solid rain. Who knows, could even see some power outages here or there along 95.

PS - I don't believe they should had ever of called this a 'cane. BUT, I am looking forward to some tropical weather tomorrow for sure!
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
12z NAM3k made a pretty significant Eastward adjustment. The 3k and HRRR are in fairly strong agreement on track, potential QPF etc.

Historically, when models and NWS disagree on track - I side with NWS. Not only are they the experts, but tend to be far more accurate.

HRRR and 3k both keep CLT with 1-1.25 QPF verbatim. Lee County (Sanford) & Raleigh-Durham both with nice potential for solid rain. Who knows, could even see some power outages here or there along 95.

PS - I don't believe they should had ever of called this a 'cane. BUT, I am looking forward to some tropical weather tomorrow for sure!
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On both models, there is quick uptick in rainfall as soon as you get east of the city. Most of Union, southeast Cabarrus, and Stanly counties are solidly in the 3-4 inch range. If that comes all in 6-8 hours, there definitely could be some flash flooding issues
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
I respect the conservative nature of the forecast... but the hints at a I77 swatch of heavy precip has been around for days. Again, I respect the experts as I am a mere mortal wx lover and nothing else. Watch CLT stay (mostly) dry and Pano take a nice W
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Actually, that would be a L for Brad because now he's on board with the more western paths. And he's going with 1-3 inches of rain. So, that would really BIG L for him.
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
I respect the conservative nature of the forecast... but the hints at a I77 swatch of heavy precip has been around for days. Again, I respect the experts as I am a mere mortal wx lover and nothing else. Watch CLT stay (mostly) dry and Pano take a nice W
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Honestly at this point, it would take a fairly significant east trend for CLT metro to miss out on at least a period of heavy rain. Certainly anything is possible, but does seem the track is finally starting to get nailed down
 
Latest HRRR runs seem further east with the heaviest rain.....it only goes out 18 hrs but if you carry this on out it would be a fairly significant decrease for RDU to the west.....

HRRRMA_prec_precacc_018.png
 
JHS said:
Going to end up being an I-95 event and east when all is said and done.
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Yep and there won't be a drop, not a single drop, anywhere west of 95 from this or any event for the next 20 years. Hope you guys are stocking up out that way. Good luck!
 
Downeastnc said:
Latest HRRR runs seem further east with the heaviest rain.....it only goes out 18 hrs but if you carry this on out it would be a fairly significant decrease for RDU to the west.....

View attachment 86272
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Looks like the storm is only slightly east of it's 12z location but it's also slightly weaker. I would guess RDU would still receive heavy rates, and possible do better (than 12z); whereas 12z had some of the highest QPF RDU westward. But who knows....these tropical systems tend to do what they want to.....
 
Latest HRRR really strengthens the wind field on the east side in NC, pretty widespread gust in the 45-55 mph range over the eastern parts of NC, and has it for 4-8 hrs as well.....not sure how much I buy into this though it seems whenever the models show this it always ends up overdone....

HRRRMA_sfc_gust_029.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Latest HRRR really strengthens the wind field on the east side in NC, pretty widespread gust in the 45-55 mph range over the eastern parts of NC.....not sure how much I buy into this though it seems whenever the models show this it always ends up overdone....

View attachment 86283
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Further, the 18z HRRR has 1-3in for Union Co and CLT with a couple tenths verbatim. Pretty tight cut off there.
 
Downeastnc said:
Latest HRRR really strengthens the wind field on the east side in NC, pretty widespread gust in the 45-55 mph range over the eastern parts of NC, and has it for 4-8 hrs as well.....not sure how much I buy into this though it seems whenever the models show this it always ends up overdone....

View attachment 86283
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Going out on a limb here and say it will not verify
 
Cell north of Metter, GA had a pretty tight couplet for a brief period:

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a
* Tornado Warning for portions of...
Bulloch County in southeastern Georgia...
Candler County in southeastern Georgia...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Metter, moving northwest at 20 mph.
 
New TOR for Jacksonville Metro:

National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
437 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
DUVAL COUNTY...

At 437 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mandarin, moving north at 30 mph.

31.png
 
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
454 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Nassau County in northeastern Florida...
Northeastern Duval County in northeastern Florida...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 454 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located over
Arlington, moving north at 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.32.png
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over
land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
iGRXY said:
STill has yet to pivot to the NE. The longer this stays North, the higher rain amounts from I26 east.
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This storm has definitely stayed on the western side of the cone the last few days and it continues now. Also you have to wonder if as it starts to pull Atlantic moisture in out ahead of it, if we’ll see more bands of rain develop across SC and rotate north and west. The one that’s moving north across CLT just came through here and jumped my dewpoint up from 65 to 76… definitely feeling tropical now
 
iGRXY said:
STill has yet to pivot to the NE. The longer this stays North, the higher rain amounts from I26 east.
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Yeah, I think 2-3 inches are a good bet for 77 and east at this juncture. She was supposed to be turning NE earlier today. Those western paths will probably end up verifying after all. Although, nothing like the NAM was showing yesterday.
 
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Camden GA-
549 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTY...

At 549 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Kings Bay Base,
moving north at 40 mph.

33.png
 
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Steady rain has just started here in the SAV, GA, area. Winds are still light. Hopefully the tornadoes stay away!
 
ryan1234 said:
Yeah, I think 2-3 inches are a good bet for 77 and east at this juncture. She was supposed to be turning NE earlier today. Those western paths will probably end up verifying after all. Although, nothing like the NAM was showing yesterday.
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Yeah, you can even look at the forecast path from 5pm yesterday and compare it to today’s 5pm advisory. Today’s forecast path was on the edge of yesterday’s cone. Even now for it to follow the new track, it would have to turn sharp in the next hour, but it’s been holding at a steady 10 degrees for a while now. Something to keep in mind also is that most of this rain should fall in about 6-8 hours, so 2-3 inches of rain in such a short amount of time could definitely cause some flash flooding… you have to wonder if they put Flash Flood Watches later this evening
 
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