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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

Don’t care about the models shifts!? I’m down with the 0z GFS!C88BBF0D-6461-41F8-A17F-B1C9B8D13F31.png
 
Getting desperate when you have to break out the WRF model, but here goes....6D2C3A95-4532-4C4D-9F5D-9412F1F354A5.png
 
Seems like total precipitation amounts had increased on ever model tonight for SC. What is causing the rain to increase in intensity in SC?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Seems like total precipitation amounts had increased on ever model tonight for SC. What is causing the rain to increase in intensity in SC?
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It’s going to be transitioning to an extra-tropical system and the precip shield will be expanding on the NW side as it also feels the interaction of the cold front. CAE to MYR looks to get the heavier precip in S.C. , as modeled currently
 
6z rgem

rgem_apcpn_seus_54.png
 
Virtually all the guidance agrees on a widespread 1-2" rainfall for the Carolinas/GA (with potential for higher amounts). This is exactly what the doctor ordered for some much needed drought relief.
 
Does anyone think the damming up against the mountains. Can cause that lift and increase rain totals a bit north of I85 gsp Pickens Oconee Hendersonville Transylvania counties. A lot of times those mountains ring out more moisture. In those areas I’m hoping for a good soaking up this was 1-3 inches of rain be nice. Without tornadoes or wind


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Although the convection associated with the disturbance has
increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a
well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls
of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre. Most of the global
models forecast that the system will become better organized
later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a
tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this
morning. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in
a few hours.

The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which
is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level
diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland.
However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models
resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a
subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to
become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves
northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is
forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees
at 12 kt. The system should accelerate later today and continue
toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough.
Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds,
locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar
impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.
 
Pretty good nw jog on Nam I’m feeling really good about upstate sc. and southern mountains of nc getting good rain


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is the timing of this hitting the gulf coast and carolinas still the same, or has the storm sped up or slowed down in the last few runs on most models?
 
Very beneficial rains for most of us if the NAM is in the ball bark, which I believe it is, at least according to my "great and unmatched wisdom." ;)
qpf_acc.us_ma.png
 
Pressure down to 999, I think at the very least we get sub-tropical Nestor at 11 am update.
 
Looking at visible satellite and observations from the NOAA plane it looks like a new center is trying to form further east closer to the large convective blob.
 
tstorm said:
Looking at visible satellite and observations from the NOAA plane it looks like a new center is trying to form further east closer to the large convective blob.
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It does appear that may be the case and would certainly give it the best opportunity to take full advantage of it's small intensification window
 
Anyone have the wind gust map from this new Nam? I’m sure it’s unrealistic but I bet it’s impressive map


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Poimen said:
Very beneficial rains for most of us if the NAM is in the ball bark, which I believe it is, at least according to my "great and unmatched wisdom." ;)
qpf_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...

It would be surprising to me to see the bulk of the rain in central NC. Fingers crossed, hope so.
 
It’s not unusual for the precip max on the NW flank of such a storm. Either way, I think we will all walk away with beneficial rain.
 
Jessy89 said:
Anyone have the wind gust map from this new Nam? I’m sure it’s unrealistic but I bet it’s impressive map


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Looks like it shows a nice swath of 40-50 mph gust even up through Central/eastern SC/NC but if Dorian taught us nothing it taught us these modeled wind gust are way overdone.
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like it shows a nice swath of 40-50 mph gust even up through Central/eastern SC/NC but if Dorian taught us nothing it taught us these modeled wind gust are way overdone.
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But I mean the 12Z extended HRRR shows gusts over 40mph into SC
 
metwannabe said:
Pressure down to 999, I think at the very least we get sub-tropical Nestor at 11 am update.
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And we have a 60 mph PTC.... Lol still no well defined center so no name yet. But dang that's got to be one of the strongest PTC's I've ever seen
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
But I mean the 12Z extended HRRR shows gusts over 40mph into SC
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It showed wind gust well over that with Dorian that didn't pan out..... I'm not saying it won't happen but I'd knock those down some and go with that. Just ask @Downeastnc I think he was monitoring that very closely and none of those models verified
 
Definitely interesting to have a 60 MPH storm that is not named.

Guess the Gulf can call this their little own "Gulf-easter" (although this will eventually go straight to Nestor).

I get it though. Looks decent on IR but the circulation still seems broad.
 
metwannabe said:
It showed wind gust well over that with Dorian that didn't pan out..... I'm not saying it won't happen but I'd knock those down some and go with that. Just ask @Downeastnc I think he was monitoring that very closely and none of those models verified
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Correct they all well over stated the wind here, the HRRR had us getting 60-80 mph gust for 4-5 hrs and the 3k NAM had 60-70 mph and our official peak gust was 48......also keep in mind a lot of those higher values in the east side on the current NAM runs are associated with thunderstorms and not the ambient wind field mixing down.....
 
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