D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Very beneficial rains for most of us if the NAM is in the ball bark, which I believe it is, at least according to my "great and unmatched wisdom." 
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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropics
Pressure down to 999, I think at the very least we get sub-tropical Nestor at 11 am update.
Looking at visible satellite and observations from the NOAA plane it looks like a new center is trying to form further east closer to the large convective blob.
It does appear that may be the case and would certainly give it the best opportunity to take full advantage of it's small intensification window
Jessy89
Member
Anyone have the wind gust map from this new Nam? I’m sure it’s unrealistic but I bet it’s impressive map
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Impressive satellite presentation, messy at the sfc
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Avalanche
Member
Very beneficial rains for most of us if the NAM is in the ball bark, which I believe it is, at least according to my "great and unmatched wisdom."
It would be surprising to me to see the bulk of the rain in central NC. Fingers crossed, hope so.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
It’s not unusual for the precip max on the NW flank of such a storm. Either way, I think we will all walk away with beneficial rain.
Hopefully it trends east
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Avalanche
Member
Looks like it shows a nice swath of 40-50 mph gust even up through Central/eastern SC/NC but if Dorian taught us nothing it taught us these modeled wind gust are way overdone.
Bryce Shelton
Member
But I mean the 12Z extended HRRR shows gusts over 40mph into SC
Avalanche
Member
Dorian, at least for my area, didn't even equate to our normal summertime thunderstorm winds.
And we have a 60 mph PTC.... Lol still no well defined center so no name yet. But dang that's got to be one of the strongest PTC's I've ever seen
It showed wind gust well over that with Dorian that didn't pan out..... I'm not saying it won't happen but I'd knock those down some and go with that. Just ask @Downeastnc I think he was monitoring that very closely and none of those models verified
Lol
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Definitely interesting to have a 60 MPH storm that is not named.
Guess the Gulf can call this their little own "Gulf-easter" (although this will eventually go straight to Nestor).
I get it though. Looks decent on IR but the circulation still seems broad.
Guess the Gulf can call this their little own "Gulf-easter" (although this will eventually go straight to Nestor).
I get it though. Looks decent on IR but the circulation still seems broad.
Downeastnc
Member
Correct they all well over stated the wind here, the HRRR had us getting 60-80 mph gust for 4-5 hrs and the 3k NAM had 60-70 mph and our official peak gust was 48......also keep in mind a lot of those higher values in the east side on the current NAM runs are associated with thunderstorms and not the ambient wind field mixing down.....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
60 mph and no designation other than PTC still. I think this is a record or ties one. And lol at the wishcasting this east. I know I'm no better saying west, but we need it here. Bring it NW!