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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

BirdManDoomW

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Recon is heading out there today to check on it. I’m not totally bought on widespread rains (given it’s October they trend east) but I think better chances would be Florida maybe up to Columbia SC area. Still uncertain maybe some rain can make it up for everyone (which a front will likely bring some to all near the same time frame anyway).
 
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GaWx

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Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. I’m surprised this has yet to be “Invested”.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38
 

GaWx

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12Z GEFS is WAY more active than any recent GEFS run and it is also SE of prior runs as well as faster. A much bigger deal implied for much of the deep SE US into FL. Consistent with this: mean inland rainfall much heavier than recent runs over most of FL and also up the SE coast. Check it out on Tidbits when it comes out.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Mmm if it interacts with a front tropical rains would occur in upslope for GA to Boone NC
 

Tarheel1

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Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. I’m surprised this has yet to be “Invested”.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38
Yeah, E NC jackpots!That map looks like sh!t😌🤮! We toss the Ukie! It’s not good with tropical systems
 

Tarheel1

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Mmm if it interacts with a front tropical rains would occur in upslope for GA to Boone NC
Being on the NW side always sucks, and produces less rainfall! I’m glad it’s trending to a non-event for my area this early! .25” on a few showers! Winning!
 

KyloG

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Kind of what you expect...GFS furthest east/quicker, Euro slower/west and UK in the middle. Either way, looks like a fairly good rain maker for southern states (GA/AL/SC). For NC we shall see, it could always slide east quicker.

EuroGFSUK.gif
 

Henry2326

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CMC and ICON STAY ON TRACK WITH UKIE AND GFS....and might I add that they were the first....just no one ever believes them...lol


icon_mslp_wind_watl_28.png
gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_14.png
 

GaWx

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1. I had first posted this in the wrong thread. So, I'm also reposting it in here. The 18Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.

This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!

2. As Kylo just showed, the 18Z Euro is about the strongest and fastest Euro yet with it down to 997 mb just S of the SE tip of LA before landfall over the FL panhandle near 3 PM on Saturday. Also, it gives the heaviest rainfall for the SE as a whole of any Euro run yet. This could be a true blessing for many!
 
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