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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

BirdManDoomW

BirdManDoomW

WilkesboroDude
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Recon is heading out there today to check on it. I’m not totally bought on widespread rains (given it’s October they trend east) but I think better chances would be Florida maybe up to Columbia SC area. Still uncertain maybe some rain can make it up for everyone (which a front will likely bring some to all near the same time frame anyway).
 
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Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. I’m surprised this has yet to be “Invested”.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38
 
12Z GEFS is WAY more active than any recent GEFS run and it is also SE of prior runs as well as faster. A much bigger deal implied for much of the deep SE US into FL. Consistent with this: mean inland rainfall much heavier than recent runs over most of FL and also up the SE coast. Check it out on Tidbits when it comes out.
 
Mmm if it interacts with a front tropical rains would occur in upslope for GA to Boone NC
 
GaWx said:
Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. I’m surprised this has yet to be “Invested”.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38
Click to expand...
Yeah, E NC jackpots!That map looks like ----??! We toss the Ukie! It’s not good with tropical systems
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Mmm if it interacts with a front tropical rains would occur in upslope for GA to Boone NC
Click to expand...
Being on the NW side always sucks, and produces less rainfall! I’m glad it’s trending to a non-event for my area this early! .25” on a few showers! Winning!
 
Kind of what you expect...GFS furthest east/quicker, Euro slower/west and UK in the middle. Either way, looks like a fairly good rain maker for southern states (GA/AL/SC). For NC we shall see, it could always slide east quicker.

EuroGFSUK.gif
 
Funny...Euro precip holes GSP and RDU. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

9-km ECMWF USA Cities Southeast US 24-h Precipitation 114.png
 
CMC and ICON STAY ON TRACK WITH UKIE AND GFS....and might I add that they were the first....just no one ever believes them...lol


icon_mslp_wind_watl_28.png
gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_14.png
 
1. I had first posted this in the wrong thread. So, I'm also reposting it in here. The 18Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.

This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!

2. As Kylo just showed, the 18Z Euro is about the strongest and fastest Euro yet with it down to 997 mb just S of the SE tip of LA before landfall over the FL panhandle near 3 PM on Saturday. Also, it gives the heaviest rainfall for the SE as a whole of any Euro run yet. This could be a true blessing for many!
 
I don't know if this will be fully tropical or not, but there looks to be a narrow window of some really good upper level divergence that this could fit into this "channel" and maybe get to a weaker TS type system? Either way, looks like some gusty winds and some very helpful rainfall potentially.
 
Supporting the stronger, wetter, and faster 18Z Euro: the 18Z EPS is the most active of at least the last 4 runs with numerous members at sub 1003 mb and a pretty large number (I can't count them) sub 999. This is looking to have the most effect on a good portion of the SE US of any tropical cyclone yet this season.
 
GaWx said:
Supporting the stronger, wetter, and faster 18Z Euro: the 18Z EPS is the most active of at least the last 4 runs with numerous members at sub 1003 mb and a pretty large number (I can't count them) sub 999. This is looking to have the most effect on a good portion of the SE US of any tropical cyclone yet this season.
Click to expand...
Larry ... :mad:
 
Nam would probably be a more expansive heavy rain shield than its showing. Divergence ahead of the storm, inland pushing coastal trough, high pwats especially for the time of year
d185a8e0e8c2ad45d312b4f2b9f01ba3.jpg
04b38189e2f0db130ac11cf36e2cf15d.jpg
dbcd6f52e5c05a87a68fa8ba6cfeed29.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
0Z UKMET: similar to last run/987 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.4N 92.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2019 36 25.6N 90.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 48 28.0N 86.8W 993 47
1200UTC 19.10.2019 60 30.0N 84.4W 987 44
0000UTC 20.10.2019 72 32.0N 81.8W 995 41
1200UTC 20.10.2019 84 34.4N 77.6W 998 39
0000UTC 21.10.2019 96 36.4N 73.4W 999 41
1200UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.4N 70.3W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.10.2019 120 36.0N 68.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 22.10.2019 132 35.6N 69.2W 1012 31
0000UTC 23.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and
become a little better organized during the past several hours.
Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today
or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over
the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the
northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and
regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty
winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf
coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane
Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
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