Fountainguy97
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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropics
Still better than sunshine and ? degrees
Truer words have never been spoken! Well done my little parakeet!
You deserve a bo box for saying those words
FWIW Icon moved to the NW at 18z.
Don’t know if anyone posted this but here it is
1. I had first posted this in the wrong thread. So, I'm also reposting it in here. The 18Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.
This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
2. As Kylo just showed, the 18Z Euro is about the strongest and fastest Euro yet with it down to 997 mb just S of the SE tip of LA before landfall over the FL panhandle near 3 PM on Saturday. Also, it gives the heaviest rainfall for the SE as a whole of any Euro run yet. This could be a true blessing for many!
This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
2. As Kylo just showed, the 18Z Euro is about the strongest and fastest Euro yet with it down to 997 mb just S of the SE tip of LA before landfall over the FL panhandle near 3 PM on Saturday. Also, it gives the heaviest rainfall for the SE as a whole of any Euro run yet. This could be a true blessing for many!
Henry2326
Member
I don't know if this will be fully tropical or not, but there looks to be a narrow window of some really good upper level divergence that this could fit into this "channel" and maybe get to a weaker TS type system? Either way, looks like some gusty winds and some very helpful rainfall potentially.
Supporting the stronger, wetter, and faster 18Z Euro: the 18Z EPS is the most active of at least the last 4 runs with numerous members at sub 1003 mb and a pretty large number (I can't count them) sub 999. This is looking to have the most effect on a good portion of the SE US of any tropical cyclone yet this season.
pcbjr
Member
Larry ...
Nam would probably be a more expansive heavy rain shield than its showing. Divergence ahead of the storm, inland pushing coastal trough, high pwats especially for the time of year
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
0Z UKMET: similar to last run/987 mb:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.4N 92.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2019 36 25.6N 90.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 48 28.0N 86.8W 993 47
1200UTC 19.10.2019 60 30.0N 84.4W 987 44
0000UTC 20.10.2019 72 32.0N 81.8W 995 41
1200UTC 20.10.2019 84 34.4N 77.6W 998 39
0000UTC 21.10.2019 96 36.4N 73.4W 999 41
1200UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.4N 70.3W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.10.2019 120 36.0N 68.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 22.10.2019 132 35.6N 69.2W 1012 31
0000UTC 23.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.4N 92.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2019 36 25.6N 90.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 48 28.0N 86.8W 993 47
1200UTC 19.10.2019 60 30.0N 84.4W 987 44
0000UTC 20.10.2019 72 32.0N 81.8W 995 41
1200UTC 20.10.2019 84 34.4N 77.6W 998 39
0000UTC 21.10.2019 96 36.4N 73.4W 999 41
1200UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.4N 70.3W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.10.2019 120 36.0N 68.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 22.10.2019 132 35.6N 69.2W 1012 31
0000UTC 23.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and
become a little better organized during the past several hours.
Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today
or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over
the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the
northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and
regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty
winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf
coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane
Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and
become a little better organized during the past several hours.
Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today
or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over
the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the
northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and
regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty
winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf
coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane
Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
