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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

If it gets any stronger, and faster, wind could be more of a concern? Even 40-50 MPH can bring down trees?
 
Mike Maze said last night that the coastal areas of NC/SC would get the share. Didn't rule out rain for interior NC, but not a significant rain event. Mike, any rain event is significant for us right now. LOL. Drizzle, we're happy.
 
Avalanche said:
Mike Maze said last night that the coastal areas of NC/SC would get the share. Didn't rule out rain for interior NC, but not a significant rain event. Mike, any rain event is significant for us right now. LOL. Drizzle, we're happy.
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There’s going to be a sharp cutoff on totals on the NW side of the storm. This is based on current forecast track and speed, I’d say NW of 85, in my area,will see .5 or less, imo
 
Advisories and frequent cone updates will now occur. Recon also scheduled today.
 
Here's what the NHC has at least when I looked...

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.
 
Charlotte to Greensboro NC is within the cone of error.
 
Georgia looks like is favored for wind damage based on their maps.
 
Tropical Storm Warning issued for Florida to Louisiana.
 
Here's the first cone:

1571324625336.png

Seems about right, with the type of system this is supposed to end up being, there's a possibility of winds mixing down that could be an issue inland.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Here's the first cone:

View attachment 24570

Seems about right, with the type of system this is supposed to end up being, there's a possibility of winds mixing down that could be an issue inland.
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Ugh the NC plot is directly over me...upside is it will be hauling ashes so impacts should be minimal....I doubt anyone away from the OBX/IBX see winds to 50 mph.....tornado threat might be legit on the east side.....
 
GFS
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png
 
Don’t let cold temps and no sunshine fool you. Nate in October produced tornadoes in Wilkes and other areas of western NC. Based on the current track tho, eastern NC is favored. Most tornadoes I’ve came close to are in October with temps in the 50s and raining.
 
Downeastnc said:
Ugh the NC plot is directly over me...upside is it will be hauling ashes so impacts should be minimal....I doubt anyone away from the OBX/IBX see winds to 50 mph.....tornado threat might be legit on the east side.....
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I just want the rain threat. Tributaries are low, even non existent in some areas in my parts.
 
Last 4 runs of the GEFS clusters. See the NF low hanging around longer.

GEFS-trends.gif
 
metwannabe said:
I've not watched this very closely but correct me if I'm wrong, this keeps trending stronger on the models doesn't it? 06z Euro below, now it actually makes landfall as it's weakening but has it had down to 988mb previously?

View attachment 24559
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Not much discussion on this but I wouldn’t rule out the EURO developing this into a hurricane. Which would certainly increase tornado chances and possibly bring the track a little more north.
 
12z Euro does seem like a little west at landfall this run
 
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