Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

[BirdManDoomW]

Tropical Storm Warning issued for Florida to Louisiana.

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Here's the first cone:



Seems about right, with the type of system this is supposed to end up being, there's a possibility of winds mixing down that could be an issue inland.

 

[Metwannabe]

I'm assuming a few of you would approve of the NAM's rain shield.... it was also the most expansive to the NW with Dorian (it was overdone btw) so we shall see

 

[Downeastnc]

Here's the first cone:

View attachment 24570

Seems about right, with the type of system this is supposed to end up being, there's a possibility of winds mixing down that could be an issue inland.

Ugh the NC plot is directly over me...upside is it will be hauling ashes so impacts should be minimal....I doubt anyone away from the OBX/IBX see winds to 50 mph.....tornado threat might be legit on the east side.....

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Nestor looks to be named later today.

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS

Track looks slightly NW, heavy precip not responding?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Analog storm to compare.

 

[Ethan80963!]

The CMC looks to be a tad farther west this run fwiw

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Don’t let cold temps and no sunshine fool you. Nate in October produced tornadoes in Wilkes and other areas of western NC. Based on the current track tho, eastern NC is favored. Most tornadoes I’ve came close to are in October with temps in the 50s and raining.

 

[Avalanche]

Ugh the NC plot is directly over me...upside is it will be hauling ashes so impacts should be minimal....I doubt anyone away from the OBX/IBX see winds to 50 mph.....tornado threat might be legit on the east side.....

I just want the rain threat. Tributaries are low, even non existent in some areas in my parts.

 

[KyloG]

Last 4 runs of the GEFS clusters. See the NF low hanging around longer.

 

[Avalanche]

View attachment 24573
Analog storm to compare.

Probably a slower mover than the current one.

 

[Avalanche]

Last 4 runs of the GEFS clusters. See the NF low hanging around longer.

View attachment 24574

what would the ramifications of that be?

 

[KyloG]

what would the ramifications of that be?

Further north/west track. Precip trends of last 4 GEFS runs.

This just one model though.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I've not watched this very closely but correct me if I'm wrong, this keeps trending stronger on the models doesn't it? 06z Euro below, now it actually makes landfall as it's weakening but has it had down to 988mb previously?

View attachment 24559

Not much discussion on this but I wouldn’t rule out the EURO developing this into a hurricane. Which would certainly increase tornado chances and possibly bring the track a little more north.

 

[KyloG]

UK with 4-5" of rain along coastal regions.

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[accu35]

12z Euro does seem like a little west at landfall this run