• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

Don’t care about the models shifts!? I’m down with the 0z GFS!C88BBF0D-6461-41F8-A17F-B1C9B8D13F31.png
 
Getting desperate when you have to break out the WRF model, but here goes....6D2C3A95-4532-4C4D-9F5D-9412F1F354A5.png
 
Seems like total precipitation amounts had increased on ever model tonight for SC. What is causing the rain to increase in intensity in SC?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Seems like total precipitation amounts had increased on ever model tonight for SC. What is causing the rain to increase in intensity in SC?
Click to expand...
It’s going to be transitioning to an extra-tropical system and the precip shield will be expanding on the NW side as it also feels the interaction of the cold front. CAE to MYR looks to get the heavier precip in S.C. , as modeled currently
 
6z rgem

rgem_apcpn_seus_54.png
 
Virtually all the guidance agrees on a widespread 1-2" rainfall for the Carolinas/GA (with potential for higher amounts). This is exactly what the doctor ordered for some much needed drought relief.
 
Does anyone think the damming up against the mountains. Can cause that lift and increase rain totals a bit north of I85 gsp Pickens Oconee Hendersonville Transylvania counties. A lot of times those mountains ring out more moisture. In those areas I’m hoping for a good soaking up this was 1-3 inches of rain be nice. Without tornadoes or wind


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Although the convection associated with the disturbance has
increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a
well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls
of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre. Most of the global
models forecast that the system will become better organized
later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a
tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this
morning. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in
a few hours.

The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which
is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level
diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland.
However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models
resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a
subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to
become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves
northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is
forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees
at 12 kt. The system should accelerate later today and continue
toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough.
Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds,
locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar
impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.
 
Pretty good nw jog on Nam I’m feeling really good about upstate sc. and southern mountains of nc getting good rain


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
is the timing of this hitting the gulf coast and carolinas still the same, or has the storm sped up or slowed down in the last few runs on most models?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top