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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

ICON makes landfall as a 995 mb tropical storm in the Louisiana coast @57 hours.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
 
My opinion, the 06z Nam solution this morning is devastating for New Orleans. It gives it over water all day Friday, intensifying to 958. But more devastating is the position with NO.
 
Henry2326 said:
My opinion, the 06z Nam solution this morning is devastating for New Orleans. It gives it over water all day Friday, intensifying to 958. But more devastating is the position with NO.
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The 3km NAM yesterday had what would be the strongest hurricane on record in the Gulf, which isn’t going to happen, so I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM with this.
 
Bama Ravens said:
The 3km NAM yesterday had what would be the strongest hurricane on record in the Gulf, which isn’t going to happen, so I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM with this.
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I'm looking at the 06z....all the models have a bust occasionally (euro with Florence landfall predicted Charleston...no go).. It escalates in intensity the 24 hours before landfall. I don't put much stock in any single one.....but tend to look for characteristics of each that indicate new possibilities. After Michael, I will never again say "never"....
 
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I think the big story with this won't be the intensity of the system, but the rain it brings, especially if it goes over New Orleans. We could see major flooding there.
 
Considering the lack of real ts/td development (no real "eye"), I'm curious what confidence levels are in current track projections. Most seem to agree on the SE LA, but I really hope that isn't the case :(. The flooding in that scenario would be devastating.
 
saw this. These are the areas that flooded during Katrina. The Red Dots on map above are where the levees are under 20 feet. River is currently at 16.1

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39mph winds were observed in the SW quadrant of the system supposedly so its close to a depression.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, if it can get rid of that shear it’ll likely start getting going at a quicker pace altho looks like there may be some more later/tommorow
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Alot of the shear depicted on that chart is actually from the outflow itself and not from upper level shear affecting the system.

I dont really care for that chart for that reason and some other times it will show no shear, when obviously there is.
 
As far as the storm goes, dont expect any quick intensification soon. Looks like it still has multiple LLC(such as the one right off the LA coast) rotating around a broad center. That takes a while to fix.
 
Arcc said:
Alot of the shear depicted on that chart is actually from the outflow itself and not from upper level shear affecting the system.

I dont really care for that chart for that reason and some other times it will show no shear, when obviously there is.
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I’m not much into TCs but I guess I won’t ever use that chart again, haha
 
EURO at 168 has the remains a few counties north of Wilkes County NC. Then redevelops in the Atlantic (likely not fully tropical). Just pointing out how we have came from inland Texas to parts of our area being clipped now.
 
PTC 2 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 111452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from
the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast
east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border...and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including
metropolitan New Orleans.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from
the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
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145531_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Wow. Much of central Tennessee added to the cone. Could see tornadoes as Far East as the Appalachians..particularly West Virginia and Kentucky area.
 
Taken at face value, the official NHC track takes the center of this thing right up the Mississippi River Delta all the way to near Cape Girardeau MO. The Mississippi River is already out of its banks. This could really be a horrific river flooding event.
 
NWTENN said:
Taken at face value, the official NHC track takes the center of this thing right up the Mississippi River Delta all the way to near Cape Girardeau MO. The Mississippi River is already out of its banks. This could really be a horrific river flooding event.
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Yeah all this focus on intensity(and honestly it may not even be a hurricane) but the flooding is gonna be the story i bet
 
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