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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

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HWRF and HMON models seem to be correcting west again with the 18Z run. I don't think we'll get more accurate model forecasts until we have data input in from the Hurricane Hunters, as well as a LL circulation.
 
Arcc said:
Actually the Euro is a tick west of 0z. FWIW there probably isnt really isnt a "east" trend. I think the implications of the models showing the center forming more north or south is where some of them are getting this noise from. Obviously that will determine where exactly the landfall occurs.
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Thanks man, I'm talking about landfall 12z at landfall was east.
 
Will Rossman said:
HWRF and HMON models seem to be correcting west again with the 18Z run. I don't think we'll get more accurate model forecasts until we have data input in from the Hurricane Hunters, as well as a LL circulation.
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Bingo. The landfall point will be affected 100 miles easily in either direction just from where the LLC actually forms and the shape of the coastline.
 
Will Rossman said:
HWRF and HMON models seem to be correcting west again with the 18Z run. I don't think we'll get more accurate model forecasts until we have data input in from the Hurricane Hunters, as well as a LL circulation.
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much less until there is a storm with a name ... the name comes with a degree of intensity and certainty not associated with a L
 
Will Rossman said:
HWRF and HMON models seem to be correcting west again with the 18Z run. I don't think we'll get more accurate model forecasts until we have data input in from the Hurricane Hunters, as well as a LL circulation.
Click to expand...

its all a guess until we know where the center is(which it doesn't have so the models are just assuming stuff), that's why I don't get too worked up over this west vs. east trend, its gonna change
 
Nice banding getting better defined on the southern side of PTC 2. I'd be surprised if we don't have TS Barry tonight if today's trends keep up.
 
Brent said:
its all a guess until we know where the center is(which it doesn't have so the models are just assuming stuff), that's why I don't get too worked up over this west vs. east trend, its gonna change
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you wanna go quail hunting with me sometime? we do have a similar look on where something may be found ... ;)
 
Any reports from the planes that were supposed to gather data on the storm?
 
Brent said:
No closed low yet though it has gotten closer
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Probably will be by later tonight early tommrow morning im guessing. Idk if the HRRR is good with tropical stuff but it shows it getting its act together very soon.
 
Zander98al said:
Probably will be by later tonight early tommrow morning im guessing. Idk if the HRRR is good with tropical stuff but it shows it getting its act together very soon.
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yeah that's my belief too, they should be back out while most are sleeping tonight

currently a higher altitude flight for models I guess
 
Well I've stocked up on extra batteries and some more bottled water. I also bought a battery powered fan, which should come in handy if I have to sleep through a power outage night or two. I've been through a few storms in the 2000s that knocked out power for more than a day. Sleeping, even with the windows all open, is no fun in those situations.
 
Will Rossman said:
Looks like there's a front or MCS complex over AR and OK coming down.
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That video that was posted above talks about how those dying mcs's can aid or hurt tropical development. Will be intresting to see. And that spaghetti plot makes it look like landfall over east LA is likely
 
Mike Maze at WRAL said New Orleans could see historical flooding.
 
Both GFS and EURO bringing good rains to North MS in latest runs. Will be interesting to see how this plays out for everyone.
 
The cone has been shifted east some from earlier and then the new one. Screenshot_20190710-215905_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190710-215933_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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