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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

hY95BRC.png
 
I'm beginning to feel a landfall between Grand Isle (south of New Orleans) and Biloxi is the most likely. The upper level steering patterns are pretty well established by the models. And the changes in track are getting smaller. At this point the main variables would be a rapid development and intensification (not unlikely, given SSTs and UL winds) leading to a more eastward path, and the other unknown is where the low circulation forms.

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Something else to consider, the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water. It's going to be a very delicate balance with how quickly this organizes, if it runs into any shear (sometimes not well modeled), how much separation it gets from land, etc. Right now I would go with a middle of the road approach with a hit on central LA as a sheared TS, probably 45-55mph winds and a pressure of 995mb or so.

IF this gains more separation to the south and spends more time over water like the UK and some Euro/ICON runs have shown it would likely become a hurricane with sub 985mb pressures.
 
Not saying it's real, but Ukmet and NAM performed really well with Michael....although everyone blew it off until it was 8 hours in.
 
snowlover91 said:
Something else to consider, the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water. It's going to be a very delicate balance with how quickly this organizes, if it runs into any shear (sometimes not well modeled), how much separation it gets from land, etc. Right now I would go with a middle of the road approach with a hit on central LA as a sheared TS, probably 45-55mph winds and a pressure of 995mb or so.

IF this gains more separation to the south and spends more time over water like the UK and some Euro/ICON runs have shown it would likely become a hurricane with sub 985mb pressures.
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I can deal with that kind of storm, as long as it doesn't stall out and flood everything. At least we've had a dry spell for the last couple weeks. I expect that there would be enhanced coverage and intensity for rainfall for days after landfall as well.

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snowlover91 said:
Something else to consider, the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water. It's going to be a very delicate balance with how quickly this organizes, if it runs into any shear (sometimes not well modeled), how much separation it gets from land, etc. Right now I would go with a middle of the road approach with a hit on central LA as a sheared TS, probably 45-55mph winds and a pressure of 995mb or so.

IF this gains more separation to the south and spends more time over water like the UK and some Euro/ICON runs have shown it would likely become a hurricane with sub 985mb pressures.
Click to expand...

" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

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A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

 
Webberweather53 said:
" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

View attachment 20945

A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

Click to expand...


Levi's recent tweet reinforces this point, a deeper TC influenced more by the upper-level flow will travel further south, whereas a weaker storm embedded more within the southerly flow will move north faster into land.

 
ForsythSnow said:
I've never heard of that model before. Any idea if it's the first year or not? If not, how'd it do if you know. Also what's the winds and pressure show per that? Looks like a well organized hurricane.
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It's a proprietary model run by Dr Ventrice so I'd have to ask what the specifics are regarding its input, parameterizations, parent model, resolution, performance, etc. I don't consider it to be terribly unrealistic in the grand scheme of things atm given that its far from the only model showing a solution like this and is within the range of variability of the latest & recent ensemble suites.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a proprietary model run by Dr Ventrice so I'd have to ask what the specifics are regarding its input, parameterizations, parent model, resolution, performance, etc. I don't consider it to be terribly unrealistic in the grand scheme of things atm given that its far from the only model showing a solution like this and is within the range of variability of the latest & recent ensemble suites.
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I think it was used last winter also! It’s the equivalent to JBs pioneer model, so what could go wrong!? I’m going with a LA landfall, 80mph Hurricane, then missing Wilkesboro completely
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think it was used last winter also! It’s the equivalent to JBs pioneer model, so what could go wrong!? I’m going with a LA landfall, 80mph Hurricane, then missing Wilkesboro completely
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A strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane is entirely reasonable so long as the low & mid-level centers become vertically stacked earlier on in 92L's lifetime

"then missing Wilkesboro completely"
Our resident dodo bird will be very upset.
 
Webberweather53 said:
" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

View attachment 20945

A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

Click to expand...


I don't have paid Euro maps so all I can go off of with the Euro is it's track compared with previous runs which is why I said it "may" allow it to climb north quicker. I wasn't sure and going only off the previous 24 hour panels in contrast with today's run. Oftentimes a stronger system will be more inclined to climb poleward (but not always) or feel a weakness vs a weaker one, and based off the rough Tidbits maps, that seemed to be the case. I also don't do Twitter so only see what's posted on forums and had not seen anything about the upper level synoptics yet.
 
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