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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

The Happy Hour looks stronger.
 
The 18z GFS would be a pretty sizable hit to New Orleans and the lower MS valley which can't afford the rain because the MS river is still flooded in some areas & obviously this area especially near New Orleans is below sea level and that only makes matters worse. The positive of this further east track however is that more of the board gets a decent-large amount of much needed rain.
 
you can definitely see that struggle with dry air entrainment on its NW/W side, likely from subsidence not only from the ridge but from the storm aswell87AA13AE-569C-448E-8CE9-C6F2286322E5.jpeg
 
90/90

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
 
Looks like a PTC could be issued tomorrow.
Brent said:
90/90

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Click to expand...
 
HWRF shows less dry air entrainment making the storm look much better and allowing the west side of it to be more intense, which allows strong convection to wrap around the core warming it up and dropping the pressure
 
Brent said:
90/90

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Click to expand...
Brent,
A breath of realism ..
 
Well, we have seen tropical systems blow up very quickly the last couple of years. And our weather just keeps getting more extreme as the years go by. I would not be shocked at all to see this blow up like the HWRF shows. I believe the UK was showing something similar.
 
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