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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

HMON and HWRF seem to be a little east with the 6z runs
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Does the Houston-Galveston area really need another hurricane to hit there that causes a lot of flooding after Harvey? I hope this trends west for their sakes.
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If it trends west itll hit those areas ?. It seems if it trends west with no land interaction this thing going strengthen a good bit more than a early eastern landfall
 
TRANSITIONED, alA22019 to al022019

PTC coming?

Special Message from NHCIssued 10 Jul 2019 14:27 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT.
 
000
WTNT22 KNHC 101435
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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