Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

[Webberweather53]

I don't have paid Euro maps so all I can go off of with the Euro is it's track compared with previous runs which is why I said it "may" allow it to climb north quicker. I wasn't sure and going only off the previous 24 hour panels in contrast with today's run. Oftentimes a stronger system will be more inclined to climb poleward (but not always) or feel a weakness vs a weaker one, and based off the rough Tidbits maps, that seemed to be the case. I also don't do Twitter so only see what's posted on forums and had not seen anything about the upper level synoptics yet.

Huh? You don't need paid Euro maps to see this and no based on the tropical tidbits maps which Levi himself also noted, a stronger storm will not get steered further north, you have to actually look at the vortex-averaged sounding and wind profile around the storm to get an actual sense of what a storm of "x" intensity will do. You also can't make broad brushed assumptions about TC intensity & track and apply it to every case (here you're referring to beta drift) but it's very obvious in this case that a stronger cyclone will not climb further north as you initially assumed

I'm sorry but there's absolutely no room for debate here. The blue box highlighted by Levi shows the mean wind from 200-600 hPa, a stronger/deeper cyclone will be influenced more by the mean flow within this layer which is out of the north, this imparts a net southward motion on said TC. Contrarily, a weaker cyclone will be influenced by the mean layer wind in the red box which is out of the south, imparting a net northward motion on the TC.

 

[snowlover91]

Huh? You don't need paid Euro maps to see this and no based on the tropical tidbits maps which Levi himself also noted, a stronger storm will not get steered further north, you have to actually look at the vortex-averaged sounding and wind profile around the storm to get an actual sense of what a storm of "x" intensity will do. You also can't make broad brushed assumptions about TC intensity & track and apply it to every case (here you're referring to beta drift) but it's very obvious in this case that a stronger cyclone will not climb further north as you initially assumed

I'm sorry but there's absolutely no room for debate here. The blue box highlighted by Levi shows the mean wind from 200-600 hPa, a stronger/deeper cyclone will be influenced more by the mean flow within this layer which is out of the north, this imparts a net southward motion on said TC. Contrarily, a weaker cyclone will be influenced by the mean layer wind in the red box which is out of the south, imparting a net northward motion on the TC.
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You're using the GFS, I cited the Euro model. And I can't view soundings on my work computer so I'm not able to analyze them from Tidbits to see, and don't have the time to, hence why I used the word "may" citing my uncertainty. I'm not debating it, I said I wasn't sure and didn't have access to check at the time which is why I said things the way I did.

 

[Philstorm91]

NWS LIX forecasting wind gusts up to 40 mph Sunday for my area.

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[snowlover91]

18z NAM came in with a system that stays fairly close to the coast and never really gets going. It's been jumping around pretty wildly in recent runs and isn't good for tropical systems so take it FWIW.

 

[Webberweather53]

You're using the GFS, I cited the Euro model. And I can't view soundings on my work computer so I'm not able to analyze them from Tidbits to see, and don't have the time to, hence why I used the word "may" citing my uncertainty. I'm not debating it, I said I wasn't sure and didn't have access to check at the time which is why I said things the way I did.

You cited the Euro model? What makes you think the Euro model is just soooo much different than the GFS w/ the synoptic-scale steering pattern just a mere 36-48 hours out other than just pure guessing & hoping on your part? You do realize that the large-scale patterns between the two models are actually the same right? They both show tons of northerly upper level flow, idk why you continue to try & squirm your way out of this lol it's very obvious that a stronger storm isn't going to come further north in this case.

You don't have time to analyze the maps? Yet you have time to sit here & post innumerable responses to me in the time you could have probably looked this up & checked yourself before you shrekt yourself, it isn't that hard lol.

Anyways here's the Euro...

Shocker, there's an upper level anticyclone over Texas that's imparting northerly flow over 92L in 60 hours at 300 hPa, it's virtually what the GFS is also forecasting.

 

[Zander98al]

Center of ciruclations im guessing is in the circle; convection to the north and southeast of it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You cited the Euro model? What makes you think the Euro model is just soooo much different than the GFS w/ the synoptic-scale steering pattern just a mere 36-48 hours out other than just pure guessing & hoping on your part? You do realize that the large-scale patterns between the two models are actually the same right? They both show tons of northerly upper level flow, idk why you continue to try & squirm your way out of this lol it's very obvious that a stronger storm isn't going to come further north in this case.

You don't have time to analyze the maps? Yet you have time to sit here & post innumerable responses to me in the time you could have probably looked this up & checked yourself before you shrekt yourself, it isn't that hard lol.

Anyways here's the Euro...

Shocker, there's an upper level anticyclone over Texas that's imparting northerly flow over 92L in 60 hours at 300 hPa, it's virtually what the GFS is also forecasting.

View attachment 20949

I’m not the best at TCs, but a anticyclonic circulation at upper levels over the storm helps out ventilation and give it more classic structure, right ? Euro had it exactly over the storm a few days ago

 

[ForsythSnow]

You cited the Euro model? What makes you think the Euro model is just soooo much different than the GFS w/ the synoptic-scale steering pattern just a mere 36-48 hours out other than just pure guessing & hoping on your part? You do realize that the large-scale patterns between the two models are actually the same right? They both show tons of northerly upper level flow, idk why you continue to try & squirm your way out of this lol it's very obvious that a stronger storm isn't going to come further north in this case.

You don't have time to analyze the maps? Yet you have time to sit here & post innumerable responses to me in the time you could have probably looked this up & checked yourself before you shrekt yourself, it isn't that hard lol.

Anyways here's the Euro...

Shocker, there's an upper level anticyclone over Texas that's imparting northerly flow over 92L in 60 hours at 300 hPa, it's virtually what the GFS is also forecasting.

View attachment 20949

Can we maybe dial the sarcasm and petty phrased down a bit? I know we can have a friendly discussion. Don't Shrek yourself too.

 

[Webberweather53]

Can we maybe dial the sarcasm and petty phrased down a bit? I know we can have a friendly discussion. Don't Shrek yourself too.

It's amazing how "some people" can look at the exact same data or even just not look at all, make a huge claim, then refuse to accept the fact they were utterly wrong when the data doesn't support said claim, let alone other experts in the field echoing the same thing I'm saying. Anyways lol.

 

[pcbjr]

Probably better to just lie here and heal from some surgery as opposed to offering thoughts ... folks seem overly pissed over models ... how stupid ...

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m not the best at TCs, but a anticyclonic circulation at upper levels over the storm helps out ventilation and give it more classic structure, right ? Euro had it exactly over the storm a few days ago

Anticyclones over TCs aid in ventilation and reduce shear at least near the outflow layer (which actually changes in accordance w/ TC intensity, deeper TCs which have stronger upper-level anticyclones also have higher outflow layers). Moist convection over an area of disturbed weather in essence creates an upper level anticyclone by redistributing latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean surface and low-mid troposphere upwards & warming the mid-levels the most significantly because this is where both vertical velocities and moist static energy are maximized (often somewhere in the vicinity of 500-700 hPa although again this varies from TC to TC). Height rises occur above this level of maximum heating whereas height falls below creating a vertically stacked upper level high-low-level low couplet. Deep layer shear &/or dry air under the outflow layer of the upper level anticyclone associated w/ even a strong tropical cyclone or hurricane is often a major detriment to tropical cyclones and a bit more difficult to overcome.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Anticyclones over TCs aid in ventilation and reduce shear at least near the outflow layer (which actually changes in accordance w/ TC intensity, deeper TCs which have stronger upper-level anticyclones also have higher outflow layers). Moist convection over an area of disturbed weather in essence creates an upper level anticyclone by redistributing latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean surface and low-mid troposphere upwards & warming the mid-levels the most significantly because this is where both vertical velocities and moist static energy are maximized (often somewhere in the vicinity of 500-700 hPa although again this varies from TC to TC). Height rises occur above this level of maximum heating whereas height falls below creating a vertically stacked upper level high-low-level low couplet. Deep layer shear &/or dry air under the outflow layer of the upper level anticyclone associated w/ even a strong tropical cyclone or hurricane is often a major detriment to tropical cyclones and a bit more difficult to overcome.

Thanks for the info man ?? Still learning from this place

 

[Philstorm91]

There's just so much to learn here. I had believed for years that stronger storms can lead to pole ward cyclone tracks. But I do recall now that the northward motion rule is more true at the higher latitudes such as the North Atlantic.

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[Webberweather53]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

As for the tropical nader threat, soundings around the coast of LA have the best overlap between Cape and llvl shear from the TC, interesting tho that winds back from the SE at the sfc, pretty decent change of wind with height with SE sfc winds but SW winds around 700mb , definitely seen better setups but gotta realize that mesoscale models will likely have a better handle on cape

 

[Webberweather53]

There's just so much to learn here. I had believed for years that stronger storms can lead to pole ward cyclone tracks. But I do recall now that the northward motion rule is more true at the higher latitudes such as the North Atlantic.

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The poleward/northward motion is attributable to the beta effect which contributes roughly 10% of a tropical cyclone's total motion although this varies from case-to-case. It essentially deals with the advection of planetary vorticity across the breadth of the tropical cyclone, you can think of this literally as the storm "shoving" around different values of the coriolis parameter, with lower values to the south (remember coriolis is 0 towards the equator) & higher to the north (also remember the coriolis effect is very strong near the poles). The combination of this and the storm's own circulation creates "beta gyres" on the southwest and northeast flanks of a tropical cyclone, a low pressure beta gyre to the SW & high to the NE. The flow between them forces a TC to the northwest in the northern hemisphere irrespective of the large-scale steering flow.

Image from meted:


The relative impact of the beta effect on a tropical cyclone's total motion is a combination of several factors, I won't mention all of them here but the most obvious ones that are easiest to understand & I will try to keep the terms/words simple.

Size: larger tropical cyclones have a larger gradient in planetary vorticity (or difference in coriolis across them) because they cover more latitude, this makes the beta effect larger
Intensity: stronger tropical cyclones with stronger winds advect more planetary vorticity across their circulations more quickly
Location: the coriolis parameter doesn't decrease linearly across earth's surface, actually changing the most rapidly closer to the equator and asymptoting near the poles. Tropical cyclones that are actually a tad closer to the equator & of the same size & intensity will actually experience a stronger beta effect (I know this sounds counter-intuitive but this is actually true)
Forward movement/steering flow: The beta effect is largely a function of the 3 above factors, its relative contribution to TC motion is also dependent on how quickly a TC is moving & thus a more pronounced steering pattern will more effectively mask or lessen the impact of beta drift on TC motion. Steering patterns like the one we are observing w/ 92L to some extent where the steering currents are either not that strong or cancelling out one another, this can make a notable impact on the overall motion of the TC.


Hopefully this information was helpful to you.

 

[snowlover91]

It's amazing how "some people" can look at the exact same data or even just not look at all, make a huge claim, then refuse to accept the fact they were utterly wrong when the data doesn't support said claim, let alone other experts in the field echoing the same thing I'm saying. Anyways lol.

Just so we are clear, I did not have access to the GFS sounding data you referenced or the upper level Euro steering chart cited at the time of my original post. I looked at the Euro and compared it with 24 hours previously and noted that it was stronger which "may" allow it to climb north quicker. I based this off what typically happens and did not have access to view an upper level steering chart. I also do not have a Twitter so there is no way I would have known what Levi posted, Peppin or any others unless I had seen it posted previously on this forum (which I had not at the time). My statement "the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north..." was based entirely on assumption that it would move more poleward if it was stronger since I did not have any other data at the time to examine.

I did not have the "exact same data" to look at in my original post. I was unable to "look at all" since I could not view GFS sounds, Euro charts like you posted or Twitter posts since I don't have a twitter. I did not make a "huge claim," I made an assumption as noted above and it turns out that was a wrong assumption which I admit and have not denied, several times on this thread.

 

[Arcc]

" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

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A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

Yep, not to mention the outflow pumping the upper level ridge north of the storm should it strengthen.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS is a bit weaker this run through 42 hours.

 

[Snowfan]