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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

ForsythSnow said:
Pop up cat 5s? I've seen no such thing. There's a thing called time and a lot of energy they need to become a cat 5. I think this will be no more than a cat 3 if it can even get there. Likely going for a weak cat 2 IMO.
Click to expand...

Harvey cat 1 to 4 and Micheal cat 2 to 5 both in 24 hrs and in back to back seasons. Not much time there.


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000
NOUS42 KNHC 091625
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 09 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 10/1800Z A. 11/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 02BBA AL92
C. 10/1700Z C. 10/2000Z
D. 28.3N 86.2W D. NA
E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2300Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 15,000 TO 25,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
A. 11/0530Z A. 11/1000Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 11/0415Z C. 11/0800Z
D. 27.9N 87.8W D. 27.8N 88.3W
E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z E. 11/1030Z TO 11/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
A. 11/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0502A CYCLONE
C. 11/1000Z
D. 27.7N 88.5W
E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/2000Z AND
12/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN
Click to expand...
 
BHS1975 said:
Harvey cat 1 to 4 and Micheal cat 2 to 5 both in 24 hrs and in back to back seasons. Not much time there.


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Click to expand...

I don't know if this one will explode like that, but we have seen it happen very quickly the last two years like you pointed out.
 
BHS1975 said:
Harvey cat 1 to 4 and Micheal cat 2 to 5 both in 24 hrs and in back to back seasons. Not much time there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Harvey wasn't a 5, but I see what you mean somewhat. I doubt that we will see a cat 5 or 4 from this. Harvey and Michael had special reasons for becoming a major hurricane, mainly being the lack of ERCs in development. Only way is could do that is if it's slow and stays small and RIs to a 4 before ERCs occur.
 
small mid level circulation evident now due south of Panama City, FL. Probably one of many circulations hidden around the area
 
Last edited:
70/80 and very bullish wording, like for a stronger storm

A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Harvey wasn't a 5, but I see what you mean somewhat. I doubt that we will see a cat 5 or 4 from this. Harvey and Michael had special reasons for becoming a major hurricane, mainly being the lack of ERCs in development. Only way is could do that is if it's slow and stays small and RIs to a 4 before ERCs occur.
Click to expand...

Yep has to stay small. The first ERC this close to the mainland and dry air will likely make this another rapidly weakening gulf landfall.
 
Thru 48 hours on the ECMWF, the vort max is stronger but a tad further north if anything.

A deeper tropical cyclone however in the long-run will be steered more significantly by the upper level northerly flow impinging on upon it
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_fh48_trend (3).gif
 
Hour 72 12Z Euro same location and a bit stronger and larger vs 0Z run's 84.

Edit: Liable to go east of 0Z run.
 
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