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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

And this model east as well
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WXinCanton said:
That is like the worst possible landfall position for NO.
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Yeah I know, whether it strengthens or not, LA/MS/AL will see some real dangerous flooding out of this if this east track happens
 
Starting to think the gfs may not be an eastern outlier, models are shifting east. Still ways to go with back n forth.
 
The models have been seesawing east and west the past couple of days.
 
Brent said:
Even if the more western tracks verify NO is gonna be on the bad side with onshore flow and lets not forget the Mississippi has been in flood for weeks already so i just dont see a good solution here
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Agree: Folks have to realize here this a whole new animal (river Flooding into the city). Every time a big storm has come along by late summer/fall the river has been way down, easily handle the surge in spite those being big surges. If wont take much of a surge at all when your currently sitting just a couple feet below the levees being capped. Saw where they are shutting all the flood gates around the city now. takes like 2 days to complete.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hope those refineries can hold up under tropical storm wind gusts and heavy downpours!
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It’s more about worker safety and precautions that will shut them down. Just a bad spot for storm. I forgot the wind speed criteria over water that they normally shut down for. Don’t think it’s very high.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Read these words:
Nobody in the Carolinas is getting rain from this directly after it hits the Gulf. Said it here and now. See this in 5 days. It'll be right.
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South-west NC will see direct upslope if current shifts continue or if the GFS is right. Lake Toxaway area.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s more about worker safety and precautions that will shut them down. Just a bad spot for storm. I forgot the wind speed criteria over water that they normally shut down for. Don’t think it’s very high.
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Yep. Good thing is, it doesn't look like a long-lasting deal with widespread infrastructure damage. So hopefully, any spike in prices will be relatively short-lived.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yep. Good thing is, it doesn't look like a long-lasting deal with widespread infrastructure damage. So hopefully, any spike in prices will be relatively short-lived.
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But could be a multi-day shutdown based on track-speed. Just checked the NHC rain map and they have 4-6” smidge over western NC now.
 
Preliminary Appalachian upslope subject to change. All of north Georgia gets wet.
 

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Guys/Gals please keep the banter in appropriate threads, if your not sure what banter is just watch which post are about to disappear and that should give you some idea. Thanks and carry on....
 
Rain Cold said:
Yep. Good thing is, it doesn't look like a long-lasting deal with widespread infrastructure damage. So hopefully, any spike in prices will be relatively short-lived.
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Agree.... however already reports of evacuations from oil rigs in the GOM and those same reports say some 250,000 barrels a day immediately affected with a potential for 700,000 barrels a day. So yeah hopefully short lived but gas price increase not out of the question unfortunately
 
18z nam start off to far west, low is further east
 
metwannabe said:
Agree.... however already reports of evacuations from oil rigs in the GOM and those same reports say some 250,000 barrels a day immediately affected with a potential for 700,000 barrels a day. So yeah hopefully short lived but gas price increase not out of the question unfortunately
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well we all know they use any reason to raise them...
 
metwannabe said:
Guys/Gals please keep the banter in appropriate threads, if your not sure what banter is just watch which post are about to disappear and that should give you some idea. Thanks and carry on....
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Delete this (if you please ... or I will) ... but gotta say, there's a bird chirping, if not squawking in here ...
 
LR hrrr has what looks like a storm around the 980s mb early friday morning. Screenshot_20190710-154317_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190710-154443_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
The track will continue to take an East tick.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
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Maybe, the HRRR has it moving at a snails pace before reaching land so this thing might give us a suprise in the strength department.
 
I agree with Ryan Maue could be a big disaster 20-30” along the Mississippi River being ground zero for multiple states. I think UKMET and CMC are out to Lunch.
 
I think the East shift on the Euro, is very telling! LA/MS looking like close to area of landfall
 
Are we going to have an obs thread for this storm, or will the title of the thread get updated as this gets closer to landfall?
 
accu35 said:
Wow, big shift east Euro
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Actually the Euro is a tick west of 0z. FWIW there probably isnt really isnt a "east" trend. I think the implications of the models showing the center forming more north or south is where some of them are getting this noise from. Obviously that will determine where exactly the landfall occurs.
 
Snowfan said:
The chances of that verifiying is 0.00000001%.
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I know. Most likely scenario IMO, based on data we know would be a lower end hurricane moving up the states of LA and MS slowly. Still very bad news from a flooding perspective though. These NAM runs still make me blink twice though, lol.
 
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