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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png
gfs looks a bit stronger/ together. Feeling the tug north?
 
Seems like the weather models are pushing it a little further east than before
 
Yea no denying the 12z GFS clearly gave a nod to what the Euro has been showing for the last several runs & it's been doing this really for more than one run just discontinuously.

 
How strong are the models showing the system to be when it makes landfall?
 
There's still time for all the variables to fall into place, we don't even have this storm fully over water yet. But the models seem to be developing a better consensus on the path of this storm. Right now it looks like the track puts my area into play, but determining potential impacts, beyond potentially heavy rains, seems too speculative at this early stage. Practically, this means I'll be doing a little extra shopping in the next day or two, reviewing my hurricane plans, and hoping and praying for the best.

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UKMET looks bad.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a tug-of-war between low-level frictional convergence & strong horizonal shear near the FL panhandle plus the already somewhat prominent surface trough extending all the way into GA vs diabatically-forced surface pressure falls underneath the sheared convection out over the Gulf of Mexico. Both are competing for surface vorticity generation and upward motion and I'm not sure who will win although I'd lean ever so slightly to the Euro camp given its performance thus far (GFS didn't even have the low into the Gulf into a few days ago & kept taking the system out to the NE, the ECMWF in earlier suites was effectively showing what consensus is now). The GFS didn't have the convection that's now firing over the Gulf while the Euro was underselling the surface trough to the NE. Tough call really, I personally would like the northern solution to pan out to give more of the board some much needed rain and diminish the severity of direct impacts. Comes down to mesoscale processes that are exceptionally difficult to forecast and ones we have limited understanding of.
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Yeah it could go either way, with some of the changes to the GFS and Euro since last season it's tough to know what biases they have right now and how they are going to handle this. 12z GFS did come in stronger and similar to it's 00z run. Should be interesting to see what the UK and Euro do later today. If this gets far enough south it should have plenty of warm water to work with and a good chance at a cane. If it hugs the coast it won't do much.
 
Brent said:
the UKMET came in way stronger than a weak hurricane apparently

946 mb could easily be a major
Click to expand...

Wow that's a dramatic change right there, with the 12z GFS coming in stronger and UK significantly stronger... if it rapidly intensifies as these stronger models show there won't be much time for prep or evacuation either.
 
I'm just gonna ignore this lol. Or should I?
gfs-legacy_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png
 
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