• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

I say good shift east
ecmwf_ow850_scus_6.png
 
Cool well something must be snatching it up north prob because its weak so good news
 
That Euro run had the storm over water 4 days, Wow
 
This reminds me of a winter storm the models are west and slowly coming east as we near verification. But as of 6z most models seem to be coming in farther east we will need to see if this keeps going and if so how far east models are willing to take it. This could go from being a Texas and Louisiana system to a Louisiana and Mississippi system.
 
The Euro ENS seem to be showing 3 main paths between the members. 1 being Texas, the other being LA, and the last being AL going into GA. It definitely is headed more east it seems per the newer runs.
 
Here's my two cents on this. The GFS (Fv3 version) last year showed a good amount of skill in depicting the intensity of systems, especially in environments where shear was a concern. The fact that this whole time it has had an extremely sloppy, messy system that stays close to land and struggles to develop is very telling IMO. I'm leaning towards the idea of just a broad low pressure that never tightens up and brings a lot of showers and storms to the Gulf Coast vs a further south and tightly wrapped storm that bombs out like the Euro/ICON are showing.
 
Ethan80963 said:
This reminds me of a winter storm the models are west and slowly coming east as we near verification. But as of 6z most models seem to be coming in farther east we will need to see if this keeps going and if so how far east models are willing to take it. This could go from being a Texas and Louisiana system to a Louisiana and Mississippi system.
Click to expand...

I think the models did the same thing last year with tropical systems, too.
 
More than likely this is a sloppy system as usual in these types of setups. Wind will be around but as we all know the rain will be the biggest threat. Track, not sure.... I see the path west toward Texas, but also a nice trof over the lakes and OH valley that could tug this toward MS as well.
 
Going to be right side dominant and place some on the board with rain. West side into Texas will feature sinking dry air. Too early to tell if places like Georgia/Tennessee come into play down the road.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top