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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

Snowflowxxl said:
GFS is back to being the laughing stock of weather models. How much money are they throwing into that thing for it to be such junk. Euro and ICON in the same ballpark atm.
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I don’t think we can completely rule it out yet. It may be low on intensity but I’ve seen it do a better job with early season storms and shear for intensity forecasts than the euro at times. It’s tough to go against the Euro, UK combo but the shear the GFS shows, if it verifies, would definitely limit or slow organization.
 
snowlover91 said:
I don’t think we can completely rule it out yet. It may be low on intensity but I’ve seen it do a better job with early season storms and shear for intensity forecasts than the euro at times. It’s tough to go against the Euro, UK combo but the shear the GFS shows, if it verifies, would definitely limit or slow organization.
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Yep, never go overboard on intensity on an early gulf storm. If it can form quick enough and if shear is low it could ratchet up intensity wise.

The key here is can it actually form. Like I said days ago, the models are normally way too quick to develop systems in the gulf. This could be a hurricane coming ashore or a broad, multiple center tropical mess that is nothing more than a rain maker.
 
0z Nam rides the gulf coast from Florida panhandle to Texas LOL
 
Arcc said:
Yep, never go overboard on intensity on an early gulf storm. If it can form quick enough and if shear is low it could ratchet up intensity wise.

The key here is can it actually form. Like I said days ago, the models are normally way too quick to develop systems in the gulf. This could be a hurricane coming ashore or a broad, multiple center tropical mess that is nothing more than a rain maker.
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I do agree here but i also almost expect the GFS to cave sooner or later
 
Brent said:
I do agree here but i also almost expect the GFS to cave sooner or later
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It should be interesting to see and it wouldnt surprise me if it did. Isnt the new GFS what was the FV3? If that is the case its worth mentioning the FV3 did pretty good last year with regards to TC.
 
0Z ICON is a direct slammer here in LA. Hopefully it doesn't verify THAT strong. We could use a little rain, but not a slow mover with wind.
 
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png
0z Icon little east from last run
 
GFS actually looks a little better this run through Thursday

The start of the cave? Lol
 
Gfs takes a deep dive into the gulf, Lol
 
Gfs looks little east as well, or maybe the same as 18z
 
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