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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png
gfs looks a bit stronger/ together. Feeling the tug north?
 
Seems like the weather models are pushing it a little further east than before
 
Yea no denying the 12z GFS clearly gave a nod to what the Euro has been showing for the last several runs & it's been doing this really for more than one run just discontinuously.

 
How strong are the models showing the system to be when it makes landfall?
 
There's still time for all the variables to fall into place, we don't even have this storm fully over water yet. But the models seem to be developing a better consensus on the path of this storm. Right now it looks like the track puts my area into play, but determining potential impacts, beyond potentially heavy rains, seems too speculative at this early stage. Practically, this means I'll be doing a little extra shopping in the next day or two, reviewing my hurricane plans, and hoping and praying for the best.

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UKMET looks bad.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a tug-of-war between low-level frictional convergence & strong horizonal shear near the FL panhandle plus the already somewhat prominent surface trough extending all the way into GA vs diabatically-forced surface pressure falls underneath the sheared convection out over the Gulf of Mexico. Both are competing for surface vorticity generation and upward motion and I'm not sure who will win although I'd lean ever so slightly to the Euro camp given its performance thus far (GFS didn't even have the low into the Gulf into a few days ago & kept taking the system out to the NE, the ECMWF in earlier suites was effectively showing what consensus is now). The GFS didn't have the convection that's now firing over the Gulf while the Euro was underselling the surface trough to the NE. Tough call really, I personally would like the northern solution to pan out to give more of the board some much needed rain and diminish the severity of direct impacts. Comes down to mesoscale processes that are exceptionally difficult to forecast and ones we have limited understanding of.
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Yeah it could go either way, with some of the changes to the GFS and Euro since last season it's tough to know what biases they have right now and how they are going to handle this. 12z GFS did come in stronger and similar to it's 00z run. Should be interesting to see what the UK and Euro do later today. If this gets far enough south it should have plenty of warm water to work with and a good chance at a cane. If it hugs the coast it won't do much.
 
Brent said:
the UKMET came in way stronger than a weak hurricane apparently

946 mb could easily be a major
Click to expand...

Wow that's a dramatic change right there, with the 12z GFS coming in stronger and UK significantly stronger... if it rapidly intensifies as these stronger models show there won't be much time for prep or evacuation either.
 
I'm just gonna ignore this lol. Or should I?
gfs-legacy_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png
 
Here's a good tweet from Levi about the changes in the GFS and shear it's predicting. This is going to be a tough one to forecast.
 
Brent said:
the UKMET came in way stronger than a weak hurricane apparently

946 mb could easily be a major

into SW LA Saturday
Click to expand...
Snowfan said:
UKMET looks bad.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28
Click to expand...

Yeah, close to a cat 2.
 
The next 24-48 hours will be critical to the path and strength here. Where the center develops, how slowly does it move, etc. will be key factors to watch today and tomorrow. It should start organizing quickly by Thursday if the stronger models are correct.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it could go either way, with some of the changes to the GFS and Euro since last season it's tough to know what biases they have right now and how they are going to handle this. 12z GFS did come in stronger and similar to it's 00z run. Should be interesting to see what the UK and Euro do later today. If this gets far enough south it should have plenty of warm water to work with and a good chance at a cane. If it hugs the coast it won't do much.
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On the contrary, it's starting to become clear that the GFS biases are hurting its forecast (& have been) more than the ECMWF & ICON.
 
If the circulation is already beginning to coalesce over water, when should we expect Hurricane Hunters to fly over to investigate?

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Webberweather53 said:
This upcoming 12z ECMWF run is going to be a big one esp now that the stubborn GFS is finally onboard w/ the idea for a stronger, further south, more vertically stacked system which the Euro has shown for the past several days on end.
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Euro may be stronger and west, I've seen it follow the UK shifts many times. Thursday is go day, most of the models slowly organize this today and tomorrow and then things take off Thursday/Friday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This upcoming 12z ECMWF run is going to be a big one esp now that the stubborn GFS is finally onboard w/ the idea for a stronger, further south, more vertically stacked system which the Euro has shown for the past several days on end.
Click to expand...

Really don’t like this idea of more strengthening, that col pattern you mentioned on twitter caused lots of uncertainty this past week and now we’re seeing it go one way (the storm), the bad way
 
Webberweather53 said:
Depending on the size of the cane, which in most cases w/ storms like this of mid-latitude origin in environments w/ higher background MSLP they tend to be smaller & more unpredictable, 946 could actually be a cat 4.
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Yikes! I was just going by the max wind the UKMET put out, but I guess it doesn't really match the pressure.
 
Wouldn’t surprise me if this thing blows up with the pop up cat 5s we have these days.


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BHS1975 said:
Wouldn’t surprise me if this thing blows up with the pop up cat 5s we have these days.


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Click to expand...
Pop up cat 5s? I've seen no such thing. There's a thing called time and a lot of energy they need to become a cat 5. I think this will be no more than a cat 3 if it can even get there. Likely going for a weak cat 2 IMO.
 
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