Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

[snowlover91]

Here's a good tweet from Levi about the changes in the GFS and shear it's predicting. This is going to be a tough one to forecast.

 

[Brick Tamland]

the UKMET came in way stronger than a weak hurricane apparently

946 mb could easily be a major

into SW LA Saturday

UKMET looks bad.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

Yeah, close to a cat 2.

 

[accu35]

WOW!! And this will change

 

[snowlover91]

The next 24-48 hours will be critical to the path and strength here. Where the center develops, how slowly does it move, etc. will be key factors to watch today and tomorrow. It should start organizing quickly by Thursday if the stronger models are correct.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah it could go either way, with some of the changes to the GFS and Euro since last season it's tough to know what biases they have right now and how they are going to handle this. 12z GFS did come in stronger and similar to it's 00z run. Should be interesting to see what the UK and Euro do later today. If this gets far enough south it should have plenty of warm water to work with and a good chance at a cane. If it hugs the coast it won't do much.

On the contrary, it's starting to become clear that the GFS biases are hurting its forecast (& have been) more than the ECMWF & ICON.

 

[snowlover91]

Yeah, close to a cat 2.

UK winds are usually too low, a pressure of 946 would argue for a cat 3 storm depending on size and structure of the system.

 

[Brent]

Where the UKMET landfalls its 946 mb here

 

[Philstorm91]

If the circulation is already beginning to coalesce over water, when should we expect Hurricane Hunters to fly over to investigate?

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[Brent]

If the circulation is already beginning to coalesce over water, when should we expect Hurricane Hunters to fly over to investigate?

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Tomorrow

 

[Rick]

If the circulation is already beginning to coalesce over water, when should we expect Hurricane Hunters to fly over to investigate?

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They're scheduled for tomorrow at 2 PM et

 

[Snowfan]

If the circulation is already beginning to coalesce over water, when should we expect Hurricane Hunters to fly over to investigate?

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I've heard there are going to investigate tomorrow.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, close to a cat 2.

Depending on the size of the cane, which in most cases w/ storms like this of mid-latitude origin in environments w/ higher background MSLP they tend to be smaller & more unpredictable, 946 could actually be a cat 4.

 

[Webberweather53]

This upcoming 12z ECMWF run is going to be a big one esp now that the stubborn GFS is finally onboard w/ the idea for a stronger, further south, more vertically stacked system which the Euro has shown for the past several days on end.

 

[snowlover91]

This upcoming 12z ECMWF run is going to be a big one esp now that the stubborn GFS is finally onboard w/ the idea for a stronger, further south, more vertically stacked system which the Euro has shown for the past several days on end.

Euro may be stronger and west, I've seen it follow the UK shifts many times. Thursday is go day, most of the models slowly organize this today and tomorrow and then things take off Thursday/Friday.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This upcoming 12z ECMWF run is going to be a big one esp now that the stubborn GFS is finally onboard w/ the idea for a stronger, further south, more vertically stacked system which the Euro has shown for the past several days on end.

Really don’t like this idea of more strengthening, that col pattern you mentioned on twitter caused lots of uncertainty this past week and now we’re seeing it go one way (the storm), the bad way

 

[Brick Tamland]

Depending on the size of the cane, which in most cases w/ storms like this of mid-latitude origin in environments w/ higher background MSLP they tend to be smaller & more unpredictable, 946 could actually be a cat 4.

Yikes! I was just going by the max wind the UKMET put out, but I guess it doesn't really match the pressure.

 

[BHS1975]

Wouldn’t surprise me if this thing blows up with the pop up cat 5s we have these days.


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[snowlover91]

Current shear map indicates the NE GOM is very favorable with little to no shear right now.

 

[Zander98al]

Lets hope the ukmet doesn't verify ??

 

[ForsythSnow]

Wouldn’t surprise me if this thing blows up with the pop up cat 5s we have these days.


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Pop up cat 5s? I've seen no such thing. There's a thing called time and a lot of energy they need to become a cat 5. I think this will be no more than a cat 3 if it can even get there. Likely going for a weak cat 2 IMO.