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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Last one; This is 6z FV3. Notice it tick back south 75-100 miles at 6z from its 0z run. Lines up perfect with Euro 0z. The 6z GFS is in its 0z location, just not as baggy and surface lp is closed off. Everything comes off coast around Wilmington, scrapes OBX and is OTS.

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If we had stronger cold supply this storm track would actually work out. In order for Raleigh to get snow with this not so ideal cold, we’d need the low to track just above the Florida Panhandle, something like this:
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NWS forecast maps have the upstate in snow turning to mix throughout the day Saturday? Seems like a big outlier to me, surprised the NWS is forecasting that, they are usually much more conservative in wintry forecasts.
 
Anyone have the 6z Euro? Fwiw the 00z RGEM ensembles still have the surface low track pretty far south but the LP is so weak/broad it could conceivably form anywhere from TN to central LA.
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snowlover91 said:
Anyone have the 6z Euro? Fwiw the 00z RGEM ensembles still have the surface low track pretty far south but the LP is so weak/broad it could conceivably form anywhere from TN to central LA.
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I also notice that the RGEM at the end of it's run has the strongest HP than other models, only a MB or 2 but still every little bit helps...
 
metwannabe said:
Well the NAM is up, it's now or never for this system (although I'm leaning towards it's not going to happen).... I am slightly intrigued by the piece of energy that moves through Monday PM
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What we need to watch is if the energy starts trending weaker and/or shearing out quicker. This would lead to more of a suppressed track with the surface low if that happens. Also where the LP forms and then the trailing wave for Monday will be worth watching. As it stands now I'm thinking this is an I-85 and NW ice event that could change to rain at the end and qpf will be light enough that it shouldn't cause any major issues.
 
NAM is a pretty significant ice storm for Western NC and even hints at some brief icing in upstate SC and northern GA.
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3km NAM at the very end of the run has some light ice forming in northern GA. The NAM and RGEM are the models of choice now that we are getting in range of them and will do the best job with the CAD.
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I still don’t trust the NAM fully, but it’s still much colder over GA Saturday. Like much colder. RGEM will be interesting.
 
snowlover91 said:
3km NAM at the very end of the run has some light ice forming in northern GA. The NAM and RGEM are the models of choice now that we are getting in range of them and will do the best job with the CAD.
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Keep an eye on that precip moving in off the Atlantic, DP's still in low 20's at that time....
 
NAM is still complete trash at this range. Remember when it was giving Oklahoma 10” of snow in early December only for it to vanish completely?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
NAM is still complete trash at this range. Remember when it was giving Oklahoma 10” of snow in early December only for it to vanish completely?
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It's prone to amping things a bit too much in the long range at times which is likely what happened in that system. The 3km inside 48 hours is usually pretty good and it's qpf agrees fairly well now with the globals. It's thermal profiles in CAD events are usually better handled than most globals as well. Something to watch with this system is a "precip hole" as the low transfers to the coast. The ICON is hinting at this and some other models have, could help reduce ice totals in CAD regions if that area ends up over them.
 
Models often struggle with qpf when there is plenty of dry air around and a weak overrunning setup ahead of the main system like we have. Sometimes these overrunning bands can be much stronger than modeled. The RGEM vs 3km NAM illustrates that pretty clearly with significant qpf disagreement in the initial overrunning precip.
 
Overrunning precip is almost always undermodeled, that’s are best chance for snow in west nc
 
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People make fun of the CMC but it and the RGEM are nearly identical at hour 48 and the RGEM is a very good short range model.
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RGEM
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Here's the snow depth and ice maps from the Canadian. I "think" the snow depth map is showing snow and sleet that has accumulated since it's higher than the snow maps. The ice is definitely less on the north side compared to the last run because more sleet is involved.
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Fwiw the 12z FV3 actually shows some nice bursts of snow across parts of NC now, this aligns with what the RGEM was hinting at. RDU jackpot! It's also a good bit colder this go around. Interesting.
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packfan98 said:
Here's the snow depth and ice maps from the Canadian. I "think" the snow depth map is showing snow and sleet that has accumulated since it's higher than the snow maps. The ice is definitely less on the north side compared to the last run because more sleet is involved.
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That ice map won't happen lol.

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