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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

This is looking like a similar event to early December 2018, but with generally lighter accumulations and the greatest accumulations will likely be slightly north of the last storm. Not expecting much of anything for GSP or ATL, but the western two thirds of NC as well as most of VA have a good shot at a wintry mix.
 
So the 6z ICON and the 6z GFS regular have a 1040+ high just north of the border throughout the storm, weakening it as the storm leaves. This would be a big winter storm for the upper SE.

The Euro has a 1038ish high just north of the border throughout the storm, weakening it as it leaves. This would also be a big winter storm for the upper SE, assuming there's enough precip.

The Canadian has a 1041 high but farther north. Storm farther north. More rain.

The 6z GFS extra crispy has a 1044 high way north. Storm farther north. More rain.

The UK looks like it has a mid 1030s high with warm surface temps (probably too warm). Looks like a decent hit for the upper SE.

Bottom line, a high of 1040 mb or stronger that only slightly weakens but stays in place just north of the border (or south) will result in a big winter storm, assuming there is good precipitation. Some of the models still have the high too far north. That would be ice to rain. RAH says it will be 0z Friday before all of the pieces are well sampled by the models. So, we'll have to wait to see how things shake out. I would root for a more suppressive and stronger high at this range, given how we see things usually trend.
 
Rain Cold said:
So the 6z ICON and the 6z GFS regular have a 1040+ high just north of the border throughout the storm, weakening it as the storm leaves. This would be a big winter storm for the upper SE.

The Euro has a 1038ish high just north of the border throughout the storm, weakening it as it leaves. This would also be a big winter storm for the upper SE, assuming there's enough precip.

The Canadian has a 1041 high but farther north. Storm farther north. More rain.

The 6z GFS extra crispy has a 1044 high way north. Storm farther north. More rain.

The UK looks like it has a mid 1030s high with warm surface temps (probably too warm). Looks like a decent hit for the upper SE.

Bottom line, a high of 1040 mb or stronger that only slightly weakens but stays in place just north of the border (or south) will result in a big winter storm, assuming there is good precipitation. Some of the models still have the high too far north. That would be ice to rain. RAH says it will be 0z Friday before all of the pieces are well sampled by the models. So, we'll have to wait to see how things shake out. I would root for a more suppressive and stronger high at this range, given how we see things usually trend.
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Good thing is it's 4 to 2 for a decent to big storm. Nice to have the ICON, GFS, and Euro all showing a big storm, and the UK a decent one. Those are good odds at the moment.
 
Rain Cold said:
So the 6z ICON and the 6z GFS regular have a 1040+ high just north of the border throughout the storm, weakening it as the storm leaves. This would be a big winter storm for the upper SE.

The Euro has a 1038ish high just north of the border throughout the storm, weakening it as it leaves. This would also be a big winter storm for the upper SE, assuming there's enough precip.

The Canadian has a 1041 high but farther north. Storm farther north. More rain.

The 6z GFS extra crispy has a 1044 high way north. Storm farther north. More rain.

The UK looks like it has a mid 1030s high with warm surface temps (probably too warm). Looks like a decent hit for the upper SE.

Bottom line, a high of 1040 mb or stronger that only slightly weakens but stays in place just north of the border (or south) will result in a big winter storm, assuming there is good precipitation. Some of the models still have the high too far north. That would be ice to rain. RAH says it will be 0z Friday before all of the pieces are well sampled by the models. So, we'll have to wait to see how things shake out. I would root for a more suppressive and stronger high at this range, given how we see things usually trend.
Click to expand...

Excellent post. I also think it's worth noting that in our December storm the ICON was one of the warmest models and amped more but came around inside about 72 hours. This time it is much colder with a 1044+ HP and track more like the Euro and EPS mean. Looking at 5H verification scores the Euro and UK are the top two performers right now so I'm leaning towards them this time around vs the amped GFS idea.
 
Wulfer said:
Correct me if I'm wrong Cyclogent, going south puts us closer to the game.
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We're very much in the game as is on the front end, our issue is just getting precip in here before WAA takes over. Pretty much anything that falls Friday night into early Saturday morning is going to be snow. Further south would help us pick up more precip from the initial band ahead of the main wave. The 6z FV3 for example has all of the precip from the initial band passing just to our north. Thermals are supportive of snow, just need the precip.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

fv3p_T850_us_17.png

fv3p_Td2m_us_17.png
 
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Jessy89 said:
Outside the mountains in North Carolina will do well. I should of specified upstate sc and ne ga brief mix changing to rain. It’s all subject to change it’s only Tuesday.


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Why? Back it up with reasoning.

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