Yeah, I really don't trust the American models at this point anymore now that I think of it
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
6Z looks a little better! Nice 1040 high in a good spot. Low goes near ATL to off MYB. Baby steps! Frozen looks a little more S than 0z
It’s a touch north (the high) but the air is very dry and it’s a pretty strong high. It looks pretty good. Bring it south a tad and we’re golden. As long as the precipitation shows up.
Gefs brung the low north a tad but now the hp in a better place creating a strong CAD
Jon
Member
Love the trends as if late.
-GFS and GEFS caving to the euro.
-Euro Op and EPS trending stronger w/CAD.
-GFSFV3 is an outlier due to amping wave.
-Virtually all other models agree with suppression.
-Euro and EPS wetter with each run over Central NC
-GFS and GEFS caving to the euro.
-Euro Op and EPS trending stronger w/CAD.
-GFSFV3 is an outlier due to amping wave.
-Virtually all other models agree with suppression.
-Euro and EPS wetter with each run over Central NC
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, if it's been anything like last year, we have not had any problems with getting precip here. Things are looking very nice this morning.
WTF?
Broken024
Member
Any one have gefs snow map
Maybe he forgot to check the Euro this morning, LOL.
Jessy89
Member
Well is the models showing anything any different. I really don’t see any accumulating snow outside the mountains. I think upstate and ne ga sees snow/sleet to start changing to rain relatively quickly
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See the 6z GFS and 0z Euro
snowlover91
Member
Seems Chris Justus is relying solely on the old model runs, specifically the GFS... The Euro and UK along with ensembles are suppressed and GFS/FV3 will likely adjust in that direction as we get closer. Having said that it does look like this will mainly be a storm for parts of SC and NC as it stands right now.
snowlover91
Member
Looks like GEFS members are zeroing in on a Western NC storm. Anyone have the EPS members?
Yeah the GEFS has spoken. WNC and MA threat
Jessy89
Member
Maybe we trend even better today. But safe guess outside the mountains. 33-35 degrees rain. Things can change now the areas outside the mountains in North Carolina May get a good storm out of this
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Why?
Jessy89
Member
Outside the mountains in North Carolina will do well. I should of specified upstate sc and ne ga brief mix changing to rain. It’s all subject to change it’s only Tuesday.
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cyclogent
Member
Two things to keep in mind with this setup that won't be clear for another 24-36+ hours and why we may see some significant changes.
1) the trough in the NE does not yet exist, and there is a bit of ensemble spread with depth/placement after it does form.
2) our s/w energy in the Pacific is there but it hasn't "split" yet. How much of the energy actually splits south and then how far that digs also a question mark.
1) the trough in the NE does not yet exist, and there is a bit of ensemble spread with depth/placement after it does form.
2) our s/w energy in the Pacific is there but it hasn't "split" yet. How much of the energy actually splits south and then how far that digs also a question mark.