Keep an eye on that precip moving in off the Atlantic, DP's still in low 20's at that time....
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
It will come around. I expect the wedge to go *poof* rather quickly down here
NAM is still complete trash at this range. Remember when it was giving Oklahoma 10” of snow in early December only for it to vanish completely?
Kylo
Member
Hard to imagine this not being a punishing ice storm for west of 85
snowlover91
Member
It's prone to amping things a bit too much in the long range at times which is likely what happened in that system. The 3km inside 48 hours is usually pretty good and it's qpf agrees fairly well now with the globals. It's thermal profiles in CAD events are usually better handled than most globals as well. Something to watch with this system is a "precip hole" as the low transfers to the coast. The ICON is hinting at this and some other models have, could help reduce ice totals in CAD regions if that area ends up over them.
Oh I do too, however, this airmass is different at least initially. It will take a little longer to scout out. But yes I agree it will kick out quickly.
Jon
Member
snowlover91
Member
RGEM at hour 48 is interesting with the overrunning precip.
Compared to 3km NAM
Compared to 3km NAM
snowlover91
Member
Models often struggle with qpf when there is plenty of dry air around and a weak overrunning setup ahead of the main system like we have. Sometimes these overrunning bands can be much stronger than modeled. The RGEM vs 3km NAM illustrates that pretty clearly with significant qpf disagreement in the initial overrunning precip.
Overrunning precip is almost always undermodeled, that’s are best chance for snow in west nc
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snowlover91
Member
CMC actually came in colder on this run and insists on a significant ice storm for Western NC.
snowlover91
Member
People make fun of the CMC but it and the RGEM are nearly identical at hour 48 and the RGEM is a very good short range model.
RGEM
RGEM
snowlover91
Member
CMC shows more sleet vs zr which would be good for CAD regions to cut down on the zr threat.
packfan98
Moderator
Ryan Maue posted a GIF of the 6z Euro. It seems to match most of the other modeling with a period of mixed precip NW of I-85.
Hope to see other srmodels show sleet
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the snow depth and ice maps from the Canadian. I "think" the snow depth map is showing snow and sleet that has accumulated since it's higher than the snow maps. The ice is definitely less on the north side compared to the last run because more sleet is involved.
snowlover91
Member
Fwiw the 12z FV3 actually shows some nice bursts of snow across parts of NC now, this aligns with what the RGEM was hinting at. RDU jackpot! It's also a good bit colder this go around. Interesting.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the official NWS Raleigh forecast currently:
SimeonNC
Member