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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Remember in the December storm the NAM in the extended range had dewpoints that were way too low and adjusted as it came inside 60 hours. I would go with the global model dewpoints for this storm until we get inside 60 hours when the NAM is better.

GFS looks north initially at 78, hard to tell where it'll go from here though.
 
cyclogent said:
We're very much in the game as is on the front end, our issue is just getting precip in here before WAA takes over. Pretty much anything that falls Friday night into early Saturday morning is going to be snow. Further south would help us pick up more precip from the initial band ahead of the main wave. The 6z FV3 for example has all of the precip from the initial band passing just to our north. Thermals are supportive of snow, just need the precip.

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I can see why your liking the trend now!
 
Mix for northwest upstate at 108 GFS, snow through mountains
 
Big winter storm for the mountains, foothills, western piedmont on GFS so far hr114. Below freezing at surface I-85 and NW.
 
The high and the low keeps trending weaker each run of the GFS. The high seems to be moving in a more realistic direction while the low is just becoming more favorable. Don't let weaker fool you in terms of the high. A 1040 is plenty enough to get the job done for icing with those DPs.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The high and the low keeps trending weaker each run of the GFS. The high seems to be moving in a more realistic direction while the low is just becoming more favorable. Don't let weaker fool you in terms of the high. A 1040 is plenty enough to get the job done for icing with those DPs.
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True, but we have several more days to go. Hopefully, it doesn't trend down into the low 1030s and farther north. That's kind of what I'm afraid might happen.
 
Looks like a hard cutoff from no snow to 3-5 inches, as always
EDIT: Looks like .6 of freezing rain around Greenville/Spartanburg
 
12z is S of 6z, but precip lines look about same? Pretty farther S, imo
 
Sleet City USA said:
Looks like a hard cutoff from no snow to 3-5 inches, as always
EDIT: Looks like .6 of freezing rain around Greenville/Spartanburg
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Got to get temps below freezing to get ZR. Last winter events around here , temps never got below 33/34 degrees
 
Second low forms off east coast, as this first storm pulls out. Second low little off shore but leaves snow showers around the east coast
 
The Tropical Tidbits ICON precip maps are struggling to pick up on precip types. ICON shows a large swath of rain at 31 degrees when it should be ZR/IP/SN at that temperature.
 
CyclonicFury said:
The Tropical Tidbits ICON precip maps are struggling to pick up on precip types. ICON shows a large swath of rain at 31 degrees when it should be ZR/IP/SN at that temperature.
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Yeah for some reason the Tidbits maps only show snow or "rain" even if the surface temps are 32 or colder in the "rain" areas. There are some things on the site that need updating like that and the FV3 snowfall maps.
 
Anyone have update on 12z FV3 map? 12z not coming up. Maybe maintenance work
 
GEFS looks a little stronger with our LP and slightly weaker with the HP, mean is 1040HP which is still plenty strong.
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