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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Miller B’s can work for for CAD areas in both Carolinas and into NE GA. It’s not anyone’s first choice of storm track around here but it can sometimes work for ice events
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I am not saying it won't work, I'm saying it hasn't worked lately except for parts of the upstate. The last major CAD event that showed love to most of the Carolina's including lots of parts of GA was Feb 2014 except for a few ice events. This storm, as of now, looks to deliver yet another blow to the same areas hit with the Dec storm but possibly less impactful along Charlotte to Raleigh.
 
Robert West said:
I am not saying it won't work, I'm saying it hasn't worked lately except for parts of the upstate. The last major CAD event that showed love to most of the Carolina's including lots of parts of GA was Feb 2014 except for a few ice events. This storm, as of now, looks to deliver yet another blow to the same areas hit with the Dec storm but possibly less impactful along Charlotte to Raleigh.
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That is what I am thinking, too. The same places that got hit with that storm, but just not as big of a storm. Still, a couple of inches would be added to the totals for those places and would continue to improve this winter.
 
Ethan80963 said:
Could that low cut like that with that high pressure their?
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Not sure but this image the high is fairly far north. It’s strong but it’s probably too far north. If it came south a couple hundred miles then it would have no problem shoving the LP south. The issue isn’t strength of HP but rather placement.

4668387D-D66E-402A-B177-8A96760391A1.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Not sure but this image the high is fairly far north. It’s strong but it’s probably too far north. If it came south a couple hundred miles then it would have no problem shoving the LP south. The issue isn’t strength of HP but rather placement.

View attachment 10184
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Something seems weird here. I can't see a low like that doing such a thing as going headfirst into a ridge. Also for the record the CMC is pretty close to a good run especially with its track. Just a little warm.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png
 
I dug around in some of my pics and found this model image of our early December storm.
DB0343FD-0D75-4E35-8531-C65F7BE73EDC.jpeg

Look how far south our HP was! And even then a lot of areas struggles with Ptypes.

Now compare that HP to the placement of this storms at roughly the same development stage.

8B2B60C5-499B-48B1-B7CE-44A87D5B4249.png

Our HP is WAY north. I know you can’t really compare two storms but this shows how north the HP is for this event. Bottom line. We need it much further south.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Something seems weird here. I can't see a low like that doing such a thing as going headfirst into a ridge. Also for the record the CMC is pretty close to a good run especially with its track. Just a little warm.
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I agree and we do know the OP gfs atleast has a bias to erode a ridge too fast. But still we would like to see our HP placement further south.
 
accu35 said:
Now watch fv3 be the opposite of gfs
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I hope it is overall North Carolina is in the game here. But other areas of southeast sc ga not really in the game yet. But it’s still early I guess. Just that dang high I wish was further south because it’s strong


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Fountainguy97 said:
I dug around in some of my pics and found this model image of our early December storm.
View attachment 10186

Look how far south our HP was! And even then a lot of areas struggles with Ptypes.

Now compare that HP to the placement of this storms at roughly the same development stage.

View attachment 10187

Our HP is WAY north. I know you can’t really compare two storms but this shows how north the HP is for this event. Bottom line. We need it much further south.
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Do you know how the cold air source compares with the upcoming event? That may enable a high farther away to be more effective than it would have been back in December. I'm speculating that we have colder drier air to pull from this go-round, but I don't have a quick comparison of the two events, so I could be wrong.
 
Here's a test I'll be watching for with the FV3. It didn't jump like the other models did every run back in December. It shifted gently. One of two things will happen this run. 1, it'll shift north slightly continuing its trend the last 3 or 4 runs, or it'll go back south some. I don't expect to see it jump back south immediately. Let's see in an hour if this is true. Better yet, maybe we can refer back to this idea in 3 days and see if it follows the same gentle shift idea.
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you know how the cold air source compares with the upcoming event? That may enable a high farther away to be more effective than it would have been back in December. I'm speculating that we have colder drier air to pull from this go-round, but I don't have a quick comparison of the two events, so I could be wrong.
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Mmm from memory this one is a touch colder.

Here are dew points on gfs for this current storm

64A48169-7C61-4867-84C4-68CD40C40BF1.png
That’s probably 10 degrees drier across the board to start than December was.


But at 850s and 2m temps it’s not really substantially different.

December: A2E3AC2E-5DF7-4A1C-9BC0-F0A1DDD32722.jpeg
This storm:
51C6EAB6-299C-425A-BFB4-0FC725D075FE.png


Overall the air mass is mildly drier than December. But not much overall temp change. One could ague this setup is warmer in VA, but colder further north.
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you know how the cold air source compares with the upcoming event? That may enable a high farther away to be more effective than it would have been back in December. I'm speculating that we have colder drier air to pull from this go-round, but I don't have a quick comparison of the two events, so I could be wrong.
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I remember things like “decaying high pressure” and “rotting” being thrown around everywhere in early December. That airmass wasn’t really a big supernatural one. This one is fresh off the Polar Express but as others have said it’s not in the most ideal of positions
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I remember things like “decaying high pressure” and “rotting” being thrown around everywhere in early December. That airmass in early December wasn’t really a big supernatural one. This one is fresh off the Polar Express but as others have said it’s not in the most ideal of positions
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I know I digress but imagine if the December storm HP placement was here in January.. it would be one to remember for ALL of S.C. and NC lol.

Bottom line is we need our HP placement to come south. The cold is there and it’s plenty strong. Just need it south.
 
Models will shuffle around alot next couple of days, but I think north/central MS and AL could see a quick burst at onset. Gfs wasn't far off, maybe couple degrees colder and things would be alot more interesting. Don't worry folks 18z happy hour will carry our worries over until oz LOL!! Banter thread I guess.
 
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