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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

It's hard to know since the ICON doesn't have soundings we can check to see what the whole atmosphere is like. The CMC today indicated more of a freezing rain scenario as well but I wouldn't trust any global with the p-type... the 3km NAM is usually very good at this as is the RGEM. The signals and synoptic setup certainly argue for a big ice storm right now but determining if it's zr or ip is something the meso models should help with when in range.

Thanks for explaining it?
 
Can someone confirm what I'm looking at is considered a meso high in VA on this map? If so, wouldn't that lock in the CAD?

GFS Pressure Lev undefined undefined 108.png
 
What are your thoughts on the upstate Chris?

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Not sure yet. I think that there’s a great possibility of seeing some ice at least initially and then maybe over to rain not sure yet
 
Hmm @accu35 @deltadog03 You seeing this?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png
 
No real changes yet. Still a miller B hybrid I think


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Alot of the gefs members had a ice storm when I checked on cod, gefs is showing that potential for a crippling ice storm
 
18z GEFS has a stronger CAD signature, but the snow mean went down. Maybe some warmer, further north solutions? Maybe more ice for the CAD regions to come on future models?
Looks like there were a few more members that went toward a full miller b look with the primary heading toward Chattanooga before the secondary got going off of the nc coast.

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What about you what you think for upstate? I think mix to rain north of 85 maybe a advisory event at best


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That would be a safe bet right now. I think it looks like a mix due to tad warmer temps in upstate. But if we get a more southerly track then of course that would change to more snow/sleet.

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I’m still interested in the back half of the wave/extra piece out of CA. If timed right could see a 2nd shot. Euro hinting at that.
I'm looking at that too.18z GFS tried to reignite precip just too positively tilted. I could see that trending better.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh120-150.gif
 
Yes, that is a meso high, there is a wedge there. Icy conditions for western NC to central NC, and maybe extreme upstate SC.
Last time we saw that I'm pretty sure north GA saw some ice as well.
 
FV3 is still running here: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model...p=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area

At least I think that is it. Looking at the products available there though, it is a little harder to tell trends. It does look to be the farthest north of all the models though.

I also tried to go back and look at the Dec system to see if the FV3 was ever over amped compared to the others at this range but could not really find what I was looking for. Limited time and the thing is going to do what it does:)
 
12z vs 18z

More amped but strong high. #iceproblems

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Thanks, I think. Seems to continue the trend of the day. I hope tomorrow we can push this thing back south a bit. I’m fine with more HP if it results in a sleet fest or snow. No thanks on the ice storm, but it looks more probable that someone will get one. #lightsout
 
FV3 is still running here: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area

At least I think that is it. Looking at the products available there though, it is a little harder to tell trends. It does look to be the farthest north of all the models though.

I also tried to go back and look at the Dec system to see if the FV3 was ever over amped compared to the others at this range but could not really find what I was looking for. Limited time and the thing is going to do what it does:)
What is the name of it in there? I don’t see it name fv3 in there.
 
Just keeps amping up more and more. Not a fan of Miller b's. Unless this trends a good bit colder or south, which I guess it could, I think this would just be an advisory level front end ice glaze that's gone and melts Sunday afternoon imby.

Really would love to get a miller A to come through with the 850s in Columbia, sc at some point in Feb.
 
Thanks, I think. Seems to continue the trend of the day. I hope tomorrow we can push this thing back south a bit. I’m fine with more HP if it results in a sleet fest or snow. No thanks on the ice storm, but it looks more probable that someone will get one. #lightsout
It will probably go back and forth.

12z Euro Vort shows how amplification (NE low track) is hard for this system. Energy digs, but ridge ends up cutting off and loses the true +PNA form. Energy over Cali adds insult to injury and further disrupts amplification. Waves flatten across SE and ride off coast, leading to a suppressed system (unable to amplify too much if at all)
59cfed4d93cf5c1381707b09d7f8940b.gif


This is on our side. Small “trends” or wobbles in track will happen, like today, but we are basically asking do we want snow or a bad ice storm? All rain to me seems unlikely, at least for CAD areas.



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