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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Members. Last winter ROA to RIC crushed it. They also jacked in early December and look like great spot here.

7D7E421A-0DD0-4A0C-9478-2868FD26EC0E.png
 
metwannabe said:
The HP is working it's way to a more favorable location with each model run..... this getting interesting no doubt.
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Yep and there we have it. A slight south shift as one of the possible solutions was expected. Let's see at 18Z and beyond where is shifts next.
For the run itself, it's getting there. More work to be done though but it's very ice as mentioned.
 
NCSNOW said:
This is a whole lot colder set up for this storm potential. Much lower level cold air will b entrenched and sustained. DPs are gonna be alot lower and wetbulbing will be colder in Upstate and NE GA unlike the Dec event. So Id be paying real close attn east of the apps, even if the 850 0 line is to your north.. Damming looks to be a lot more stout this go round.
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metwannabe said:
The HP is working it's way to a more favorable location with each model run..... this getting interesting no doubt.
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Yes, having colder air to start than the December storm should give us more wiggle room with the placement of the high. But with the models coming in better with the placement of the high, that might not be such a concern either if you want to see some frozen precip. We still have 7 days to see where the high ends up , too.
 
From Firsthand Weather:
From Firsthand Weather: Keeping a close eye on the upcoming weekend for parts of the South, Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. A Gulf Low should develop late Friday and move eastward through the weekend. At the same time, clipper-like system will dive towards the southeast from the Midwest. This should aid in precipitation and a temperature profile supportive of wintry weather for the areas outlined on the map.

This event is several days out and guidance is split so confidence is low at this point. It is possible moisture gets suppressed further south, which would decrease wintry precipitation chances for the outlined areas. Keep checking back for updates as some of the questions begin to get ironed out as we get closer to the weekend.

-Meteorologist Christopher Nunley firsthand.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yes, having colder air to start than the December storm should give us more wiggle room with the placement of the high. But with the models coming in better with the placement of the high, that might not be such a concern either if you want to see some frozen precip. We still have 7 days to see where the high ends up , too.
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you got 5 max
 
I'm still debating on rather the low will cut or not? The track of low (is of course) going to play a big role on temps/p-types. So, the GFS/FV3 have a cutting solution, the low does not cut on the CMC, 12z GEFS, the low does not cut. The battle between models....
 
1300m said:
ICON was all frozen from RDU west.

View attachment 10194
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It's interesting how much colder the ICON is than the GFS. The 12z GFS was very warm with a temperature of 47F at RDU at 18z Sunday. CMC came in at 33F and ICON at 28F. It's too early to talk about potential totals with such a large range in temperature with the model guidance.
 
WxWatch said:
I'm still debating on rather the low will cut or not? The track of low (is of course) going to play a big role on temps/p-types. So, the GFS/FV3 have a cutting solution, the low does not cut on the CMC, 12z GEFS, the low does not cut. The battle between models....
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That is up to two main things.

1. The HP placement and suppression

2. The interaction of the two streams can influence where the low forms.

Neither of those are anywhere close to set in stone.

So a long way to go with this one I’m afraid
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
DP’s before precip arrived. Single digits down to the NC/VA border. Critical. Healthy airmass View attachment 10200
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For reference DP's right before the December storm were in the low 20's imby (I'm not too far from NC/Va border), so this airmass is much better to say the least
 
18z FV3 should be interesting to see if it begins a trend of the HP being further south. If so, a major ice threat has legs.

Euro will be interesting here soon. 0z didn't amp up and it had snow down to NE GA, just not many amounts. Does it hold serve on a less amped solution?
 
WxWatch said:
I'm still debating on rather the low will cut or not? The track of low (is of course) going to play a big role on temps/p-types. So, the GFS/FV3 have a cutting solution, the low does not cut on the CMC, 12z GEFS, the low does not cut. The battle between models....
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The GFS/FV3 does not necessarily have a cutter, they both show a Miller B evolution with the secondary lp forming off the coast, it occurs further north than the ICON and CMC (although the CMC is borderline Miller A/B hybrid system). But as @Fountainguy97 has been stating that HP placement is crucial to determine track of slp.
 
So we are basically going more from a potential snow. To a potential ice storm in the middle of the night Saturday night very early Sunday morning.


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CyclonicFury said:
It's interesting how much colder the ICON is than the GFS. The 12z GFS was very warm with a temperature of 47F at RDU at 18z Sunday. CMC came in at 33F and ICON at 28F. It's too early to talk about potential totals with such a large range in temperature with the model guidance.
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Keep in mind that the old GFS has a notable warm bias at the surface.
 
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