SnowNiner
Member
It's amazing how hard it is to get the 850 line into SC.
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
I think they're feeling the trend today of this thing being more amped and more precip going north. It may not be done, who knows?
packfan98
Moderator
EPS clown map:
EPS snow mean looks pretty good, improved over it's 0z run for sure...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like the Euro is catching on. Most of the models have been improving today for NC. Hope we see that continue like we did for the December storm.
packfan98
Moderator
Precip map from the EPS. Totals doubled. Getting juicy at the very least.
Wilkesboro Special. High probability this thing continues the north trend though. MA sitting pretty atm
I hope the Midlands of SC trend colder and colder.
man you know this isn't our storm. I wouldn't cling to any hope for that. We need that snowpack to the North to keep building. We normally have to go through a few near misses before one connects around here.
Just a friendly reminder that in the storm specific threads and especially during model output times, we try to run a little bit tighter ship.... so if you would be so kind and assist us by putting banter, off topic comments, imby post (direct or indirect) in the banter thread we would greatly appreciate it. Thank you and we hope you enjoy your stay at SouthernWx B&B
Kylo
Member
My concern is growing that this may be more of a IP/ZR threat between I-85 and I-95 in NC (the RDU corridor). Today's 12z CMC and ECMWF are examples of that. Generally models are much lower with snow totals this time compared to the last event, but the ice threat may be greater. Will need to continue monitoring.
Southern Greenville county. Moving in the wrong direction though for us I’m afraid. Rarely do we move things south at this point in the game. CAD is usually underdone but at this point I would like to see the 32 degree line down around Atlanta. I know it’s a step down process though. Ours is coming
snowlover91
Member
Here's some pretty cool maps contrasting the GEFS low tracks with the GEPS. There is still considerable spread on how far north/south the low tracks which will have significant implications upstream.
Fountainguy97
Member
Hey guys I just noticed an interesting close range trend on NAM.
Check out our southern energy off the coast.
It may not mean anything at all but this is a very chaotic and sensitive storm at the 5H level. Some of these little ticks can make a big difference.
As far as what this trend does for us I have no clue. Maybe some can chime in on what a deeper souther piece would do?
Check out our southern energy off the coast.
It may not mean anything at all but this is a very chaotic and sensitive storm at the 5H level. Some of these little ticks can make a big difference.
As far as what this trend does for us I have no clue. Maybe some can chime in on what a deeper souther piece would do?
snowlover91
Member
Something interesting about this is how our trough has been nudging south/west some and then the Baja energy is consolidating to the south more. I would think consolidating it to the south further would be better for snow/ice since it will bring the 850 low track to the south and less WAA as well. Worth keeping an eye on for sure.
Avalanche
Member
LOL, 4 inches for Guilford County, and 3 for Alamance. Weenie map!!! However local mets are growing in confidence that some areas of north and western piedmont could see some wintry mix out of this.
snowlover91
Member
The key for many areas hoping to see snow is the track of the 850 low. Right now I don't see anything to push this south, even the Euro has this feature pretty far north in southern Kentucky. Ideally you want to be just north of this feature for the heaviest snows, the preferred track for NC would take this low through north/central GA off Wilmington. It needs to shift south a few hundred miles to keep the WAA at bay and take this track which I don't see happening... leaving us with a solid CAD setup featuring a burst of snow (overrunning precip) followed by a transition to sleet and freezing rain for CAD areas and plain rain along and east of the climo favored areas.
I know this has been talked about before, and def. needs too...NAM did have the lowest TD's, initially, with the DEC storm only to raise them all the way up to the global levels as we go closer. I will say though, they are a touch lower than the 12z run. If we sped this precipitation up even 6 hours, it would be a total ice fest (with the dry air around) for more people.. So, we see what happens with that.
I want to also say, I think this is more ICY vs the snow that many got last time. I would say WNC obviously has the best shot at the most snow with this, but I think the ICE threat is much more the main event vs snow this time.
And the same holds true for TN also with ice being a bigger threat than snow ?
snowlover91
Member
The NAM really isn't that far off from the GFS, at least in NC where dp's are 14-18 range on the GFS and the NAM shows 10-16 so not much of a difference there. The bigger difference is in GA and other areas where it's a bit drier on the NAM vs the GFS. I definitely think this is a ice threat that will be a bit more widespread than modeled if the low travels along the Gulf Coast. A 1040+ HP building in with low teens for dewpoints will take a long time to scour out especially if the surface low travels along the Gulf Coast as modeled.
ICON seems farther south this run let’s see how it goes.
snowlover91
Member
Something else to watch is where the 5H energy enters the US. This won't become clear for another 1-2 days as it splits off and enters the US but look at the differences only about 60 hours out on models. This will have significant downstream implications regarding the degree of northern stream interaction, WAA, etc.
ICON 18z run has northern Baja.
GFS has it hundreds of miles north.
And CMC has a "middle ground" approach splitting the difference.
ICON 18z run has northern Baja.
GFS has it hundreds of miles north.
And CMC has a "middle ground" approach splitting the difference.
Good eye. This is a big factor as these things like to exit the country at the same latitude they entered
I think TN could see a bit of both....I am not totally sure on that one yet....
snowlover91
Member
A track further south would be big for the initial overrunning precip, most of that stays just to the north in VA and bringing the entire system south some would limit the WAA and allow for more snow in NC and other places as well.
Jessy89
Member
Is there still a shot for miller A?
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Even if they are different storms, I'm getting a winter storm Jonas vibe when it comes to us the the cad areas, sleet/Zr
snowlover91
Member
Verbatim the ICON would be a significant ice storm for many in NC. Keep in mind the Tidbits maps only show rain or snow, not ice, for the ICON.
Temps
QPF
Temps
QPF
Those boarderline temps are good since the ICON has a warm bias. Right?
Need to hope that this trends to more of a IP storm, many bigger mets aren't really talking about ice potential yet
That's NOT good, that would be a crippling ice storm, hoping for a cold rain by now
That would be lights out right there.... I'd wager you could trim another degree or 2 off those numbers as well, not good not good at all
snowlover91
Member
It depends on if a person likes being without power or not. Verbatim the ICON is light to moderate QPF which accrues more effectively if it is freezing rain with borderline 30-32 temps. It would be a pretty bad ice storm (assuming it's zr and not sleet) especially in the CAD regions where that will lock in.
snowlover91
Member
Oh yeah my experience with ice storms is that when temps dewpoints are in the low teens with a 1040 HP in southern Canada the surface will usually drop to 27-30 and then slowly rise. It's tough without soundings to tell if this would be sleet or freezing rain on the ICON though, no way to really know. We will have to wait and see when we get in range of the 3km NAM and RGEM for p-type forecasts.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
As things stand at the moment, there is no way of escape for some type of winter storm for the NC Piedmont. The near-surface cold seems like as much of a slam dunk as you can get at this point. So the main questions after that are 1) how much qpf and 2) how much warming aloft occurs to make the difference between sleet or freezing rain? Model soundings are showing a large warm nose Saturday night indicative of freezing rain. If the .5-.8 qpf totals are correct, that should yield a significant ice storm.
But what are the chances of that whole area being ZR. I think it will be sleet but that’s my opinion. Not trying to lose power either and certainly not wishing it upon anyone else. Just didn’t know how extreme of a warm bias it has.
snowlover91
Member
It's hard to know since the ICON doesn't have soundings we can check to see what the whole atmosphere is like. The CMC today indicated more of a freezing rain scenario as well but I wouldn't trust any global with the p-type... the 3km NAM is usually very good at this as is the RGEM. The signals and synoptic setup certainly argue for a big ice storm right now but determining if it's zr or ip is something the meso models should help with when in range.
snowlover91
Member
Nice change on the GFS at 102, the 5h energy is south and looking more like an overrunning/weak Miller A setup.
