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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Fountainguy97 said:
Mmm from memory this one is a touch colder.

Here are dew points on gfs for this current storm

View attachment 10188
That’s probably 10 degrees drier across the board to start than December was.


But at 850s and 2m temps it’s not really substantially different.

December: View attachment 10190
This storm:
View attachment 10189


Overall the air mass is mildly drier than December. But not much overall temp change. One could ague this setup is warmer in VA, but colder further north.
Click to expand...

Thank you!

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I remember things like “decaying high pressure” and “rotting” being thrown around everywhere in early December. That airmass wasn’t really a big supernatural one. This one is fresh off the Polar Express but as others have said it’s not in the most ideal of positions
Click to expand...

In this case, it may be so that the fresher nature of the air mass offsets the less than favorable HP location, allowing the end result to be similar to the December event. Still a lot to be decided.
 
Jessy89 said:
Do you think it could come south?


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Click to expand...
Ukie and Euro will be telling. I feel like we’re moving away from the suppressed solution and that’s the only way it really stays “south”. We need that northern shortwave a little bit stronger when it interacts with our southern piece if we want a suppressed solution
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Ukie and Euro will be telling. I feel like we’re moving away from the suppressed solution and that’s the only way it really stays “south”. We need that northern shortwave a little bit stronger when it interacts with our southern piece if we want a suppressed solution
Click to expand...

Just a low track around the northern gulf. And a High pressure at least into the United States vs Canada would help wonders


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No thank you Mr. Canadian!
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As soon as I saw a cad sig pop up a few days ago, I thought about ice popping up on models sometime, we needa watch that ice threat
 
Latest fv shifted the higher slp slightly more south at hour 96, but slowed down the lp a bit
 
GEFS looked like a bit of an improvement but it's clear what direction it wants. I can't post it for some reason though.
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you know how the cold air source compares with the upcoming event? That may enable a high farther away to be more effective than it would have been back in December. I'm speculating that we have colder drier air to pull from this go-round, but I don't have a quick comparison of the two events, so I could be wrong.
Click to expand...

This is a whole lot colder set up for this storm potential. Much lower level cold air will b entrenched and sustained. DPs are gonna be alot lower and wetbulbing will be colder in Upstate and NE GA unlike the Dec event. So Id be paying real close attn east of the apps, even if the 850 0 line is to your north.. Damming looks to be a lot more stout this go round.
 
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