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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

SD said:
Looks like there were a few more members that went toward a full miller b look with the primary heading toward Chattanooga before the secondary got going off of the nc coast.

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I’ve gotten some bad ice storms with that track! It’s all about the CAD!
 
2/3 of North Carolina has a winter storm. Outside of there s novelty event for upstate sc Ne ga mostly because of low dew points I’ve felt this way since yesterday. Based on the models I feel the same way now


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Tarheel1 said:
I’ve gotten some bad ice storms with that track! It’s all about the CAD!
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No kidding. Having these dews in place 6-12 hours before precip starts with NNE winds makes me think at least there will be an initial period of wintry weather if not a longer duration sleet/freezing rain event

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I see where the dew points should be lower than they were with the December storm here. So why would we get more ice than snow this time?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
With the trends today being a more further north amped system.. I think it’s safe to say this storm will affect NC and points north.
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Dont be fooled by the clown maps. You see strip of snow not coloring upstate sc,ne ga and east of mtns. Its because major ice potential exist for these areas. The cad, surface cold will be way stronger as we get closer . Globals want catch how strong and deep cad areas will wetbulb. Never do, they arent set up to and we go through this everytime. Telling you theres a high potential alot of folks are gonna get a crippling ice storm. Models uping qpf fits the bill as we get closer. Been the case for past 6 months. Someone is gonna get .5- .75 + freezing rain.
 
NCSNOW said:
Dont be fooled by the clown maps. You see strip of snow not coloring upstate sc,ne ga and east of mtns. Its because major ice potential exist for these areas. The cad, surface cold will be way stronger as we get closer . Globals want catch how strong and deep cad areas will wetbulb. Never do, they arent set up to and we go through this everytime. Telling you theres a high potential alot of folks are gonna get a crippling ice storm. Models uping qpf fits the bill as we get closer. Been the case for past 6 months. Someone is gonna get .5- .75 + freezing rain.
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The December storm, people kept saying “ it’ll trend stronger/ colder, the wedge and it never actually did. My area was supposed to be 33-35 on most models, and that’s what verified for me.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The December storm, people kept saying “ it’ll trend stronger/ colder, the wedge and it never actually did. My area was supposed to be 33-35 on most models, and that’s what verified for me.
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Same for my neck of the woods in SE Wake. The last 5 days before the storm I was on the line for snow, and actually many times got multiple inches of snow on model runs. Ended up with abt .5 of snow. .2-.3 sleet. Then a nice helping of rain.

So I think the “it’s a CAD it’ll verify colder” argument holds no water.

Atleast not for the areas on the outter edge of the CAD region. Maybe it’s a different story for areas in the center of the CAD region.
 
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BINGO. I should have been clearer.


Atleast not for the areas on the outter edge of the CAD region. Maybe it’s a different story for areas in the center of the CAD region.
 
To add to the wedge always stronger talk, I would argue that the wedge really didn’t take shape until the event started or a bit later in December. This is forecasted to different. As Shane said, the wedge will be in place for a number of hours well before precipitation comes in. That’s a HUGE difference.
 
NCSNOW said:
BINGO. I should have been clearer.


Atleast not for the areas on the outter edge of the CAD region. Maybe it’s a different story for areas in the center of the CAD region.
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I think too we are confusing strength of wedge versus the extent. I don’t think a colder wedge necessarily translates to a larger wedge.

We can see very cold but small wedges and very very large but warm wedges.

I think a lot of us (atleast myself) unconsciously tend to tie a colder wedge to a more widespread wedge which isnt the case.
 
If you’re on the fringe of this thing and want to see a little bit of frozen precip you need to hope the wedge is down into Atlanta when the NAM comes into range. That has been my experience
 
deltadog03 said:
To add to the wedge always stronger talk, I would argue that the wedge really didn’t take shape until the event started or a bit later in December. This is forecasted to different. As Shane said, the wedge will be in place for a number of hours well before precipitation comes in. That’s a HUGE difference.
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Agreed, timing was an issue with last month's storm. Comparing this storm's CAD setup to last month is apples and oranges. Plus you have much lower dewpoint temps to work with than last month's storm. (low to mid teens vs low 20s to 30s) I still wouldn't rule out NE GA (Gainesville north and east) getting some snow/ice on the front end assuming the precip moves in fast enough to take full advantage of the CAD.
 
How is this looking for extreme NM Tennessee? Say, from Clarksville toward the MS river?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Hey. I just noticed you are a firefighter. Thanks for your service and all you do.
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15 YEARS OF THAT AND 15 YEARS AS A 9-1-1 DISPATCHER. THANK YOU . ITS A PLEASURE HELPING OTHERS BUT IT HAS ITS DOWNFALLS

IM ONLY 33 YEARS OLD AND BEING IN THE STATE RETIREMENT SYSTEM WITH 25 YEARS OF SERVICE I WILL BE ABLE TO RETIRE BEFORE IM 45
 
The GFS looks like a step in the right direction. IMO In terms of it being farther south.
 
00z GFS with a lot more ZR as opposed to
snow for favored areas in NC at 18z. Maybe snow at the onset then over to ZR and a lot of it. No thanks
 
I love how snow makes it all the way to the cost in the Mid Atlantic before precip even begins to fall in SC. That’s part of the problem I would think as far as cold air transport is concerned
 
snow for favored areas in NC at 18z. Maybe snow at the onset then over to ZR and a lot of it. No thanks[/QUOTE]

Yep this has high impact ice storm written all over it. Been down this road many a time, and h5 set up is lined up perfect to drive a thorn in alot of folks side... no power...
 
I honestly think CAD areas of NC and Upstate (N of 85) can start thinking about an Ice storm. This has Miller B written all over it.

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