Also, I’m no expert, but that precip barrier to our north can’t help our situation of trying to get cold air to pull south. Maybe someone can explain why this would or wouldn’t hurt us in this situation?
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Probably mostly because of where our low is spinning?
Jon
Member
Here's the 00z operational GFS:
00Z ECMWF:
00Z FV3:
I don't think it takes a meteorologist to see which one of those three are the most different. Don't worry, the Euro likely isn't done trending yet. Even if the FV3 corrects south some, it won't change the fact it's had the correct idea for two days before the Euro caught on.
The euro may trend more, but it took a step back and/or just wobbled at 6z, so for now it’s staying put...I mean it might continue and amp up to Kentucky like the FV3 but I’m not so sure.
In my opinion, the euro was always in the too suppressed camp (we knew this because there was literally no moisture when all other models were screaming it, including euro ensembles) while the FV3 was in the too amped camp. A middle of the road solution seemed likely and that’s what we are seeing here. I know we won’t get some amazing crushing snow for RDU, but I’m worried about ice more than anything atm. Still several days away and models should correct more, the energy isn’t even over land yet.
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I would agree with that as the CAA does get cut pretty quickly from NE in the cad areas. I do think the cad should be enough for mainly WNC and maybe your area as well. If precip can make it in fast enough, northern upstate and into NGA could see some freezing at the onset.
I still think this is really only a WNC system, with a shot for y’all as well.
snowlover91
Member
A few things here. The NAM was upgraded in the last year or two and one of the known biases it has is the extended range where it is too dry at times. This appears to be the case as no global supports a precip shield that meager. I expect it will adjust that as we get closer to the 48-60 hour mark where it does better. It also has been trending a bit south with the LP track and is very weak with it. Overall I wouldn't utilize the NAM outside 60 hours because it's not going to do well with a storm like this and complex 5h interactions with the energy. Once the energy is onshore it should do a bit better and be useful then.
One more thing, the initial good pop of dry air is there fore sure but since it’s source is being cut, it will scour out rather quickly.
I agree it will fairly quickly as what 1300 said, the wedge source cuts out quickly. I do think this one starts better tho vs dec storm.
No, primarily because the parent high is so far north. The NAM (and most guidance) also develops a secondary center of high pressure over New York in response to increasing confluence that then slides offshore, which is why you see southerly winds as far south as VA, and it also effectively shuts off the feed of dry air from southern Canada associated with the parent high. So effectively, that big 1038+mb high in Canada is just there for looks as it isn't doing anything for the storm.
packfan98
Moderator
Through HR69 on the GFS, it looks a little flatter with a weaker surface depiction than 6z. Minor changes thus far.
snowlover91
Member
IMO one of the keys to watch is how the energy consolidates and comes together. I haven't seen much change in our ridge or the confluence but the one piece that is still constantly changing in globals and meso models is how all this energy consolidates. Look at the mess over the Central US. IMO that is going to be very tough for models to resolve how all these pieces of energy interact with each other and is why we are seeing various solutions like the amped up FV3 vs suppressed UK idea.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The Canadian is another big winter storm for CAD areas...snow to ice.
Fountainguy97
Member
gfs trends warmer with less frozen in NC. 
which honestly isn't bad. we do not need an inch of zr across our state.
which honestly isn't bad. we do not need an inch of zr across our state.
CMC would just be nasty....
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The GFS is similar to the CMC/ICON...except it's not as cold at the surface as the other two. I suspect it's underplaying the strength of the CAD at this range.
I hope the gfs is right, but it lost the sleet/zr last storm and just more of a rain/snow line, and I ended up with 0.5 of ice and alot of sleet, it does that for some reason
Kylo
Member
Crappy UK maps look similar to GFS/CMC track.
Fountainguy97
Member
Lights. Out.
That area stays zr the entire event. and its not just 32 and rain. its 28-30.
That area stays zr the entire event. and its not just 32 and rain. its 28-30.
snowlover91
Member
GFS with a potentially significant change in the northern stream to watch. Notice the piece of energy over Hudson Bay.
Now notice on the newest run it is pressing down on the height field forcing our energy south and delivering a nice snow to portions of Western NC. In three runs this piece of energy has shifted south a good bit and worth watching going forward as the northern stream is always VERY poorly modeled outside 72 hours.
Now notice on the newest run it is pressing down on the height field forcing our energy south and delivering a nice snow to portions of Western NC. In three runs this piece of energy has shifted south a good bit and worth watching going forward as the northern stream is always VERY poorly modeled outside 72 hours.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
If I remember correctly, the Canadian suite performed really well during the Super Bowl day ice storm/event that we had here last winter. Temps were borderline/marginal...and the GGEM/RGEM outperformed the American models. For days they screamed 'ice storm' while much of the other guidance suggested primarily rain. All of this may not mean a hill of beans, of course, but something to keep in mind.
snowlover91
Member
Fwiw the 6z FV3 did shift south some with the LP track but could just be noise at this stage.
snowlover91
Member
Here is CMC surface temps during the heaviest QPF that fountainguy97 posted. Upper 20s to 30F temps with zr falling would accrue very efficiently.
Last 4 runs of CMC at H5. Pretty obvious this is trending northward and the surface will eventually catch up. It'll take longer because it's the CMC.
Fountainguy97
Member
here is a graph made by NWS Wilmington office. Shows the relationship of ice to temp. Will be helpful if this becomes a monster ice storm. Wind also impacts ice but this storm will not have much wind thankfully.
snowlover91
Member
Here's a GIF from the GFS showing the piece of energy dropping down from Hudson Bay and forcing heights south over the past 3 runs. Look at how much this has changed. This is a big key and something that could actually force our system further south if trends continue.
06z FV3 and 12z CMC not that far off at H5. No chance CMC is handling the surface better.
snowlover91
Member
Only problem with this is the CMC runs on Tidbits are 00z and 12z so this seems a bit jumpier. The GFS over the past 4 runs has been fairly consistent with no significant shifts north or south.
This is very concerning to me. I know that it is the GEM and a lot of folks like to rag on it and it's late to the party most of the time, but once it figures out what a winter storm is going to do it is usually spot on with the p-types. This model has been spot on with every winter storm for my area that I can remember including the previous storm in December. As a matter of fact, it and the RGEM were the ONLY models that got that one right for MBY. Both forecasted a minimal amount of sleet with a heavy dose of cold rain and that's exactly what I got, while the FV3 was giving me 6+ inches of snow.
Fountainguy97
Member
This is very concerning to me. I know that it is the GEM and a lot of folks like to rag on it and it's late to the party most of the time, but once it figures out what a winter storm is going to do it is usually spot on with the p-types. This model has been spot on with every winter storm for my area that I can remember including the previous storm in December. As a matter of fact, it and the RGEM were the ONLY models that got that one right for MBY. Both forecasted a minimal amount of sleet with a heavy dose of cold rain and that's exactly what I got, while the FV3 was giving me 6+ inches of snow.
Yeah at this point it is an outlier. But that solution I guess is still on the table. Really the question is how strong is our CAD. Gfs, cmc, icon are all very close as far as track of LP.
We have two camps still for the track though. Fv3 is way north.
There is a ton of stuff to iron out first.
And right now I think the cmc is the last in the pack. But it’s on the table.
Canadian says lights out as well, massive swath of .6-.9 of zr
Doesn't matter how it got there, it's there. At H5 it's identical to the 06z FV3, which is in lockstep with the 00z Euro. Zero chance the CMC is going to handle the surface better than the FV3, Euro and even the operational GFS.
Fountainguy97
Member
wow. Most of this falls just at or below a .1 inch per hour rate. I'd say if this was real most areas would see .5-.7+ of zr. Its not extremely cold so there would be some runoff and melting.
It is the CMC and it is by itself. But this is on the table. Just not a very likely outcome at this time.
It is the CMC and it is by itself. But this is on the table. Just not a very likely outcome at this time.
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snowlover91
Member
Fwiw the 06z Euro shifted back south some as did the 06z FV3. I think the FV3 is a northern outlier at this point. CMC often does better in CAD setups as well, the op GFS has a warm bias in these setups. There are a lot of moving pieces right now especially in the northern stream and with how all the energy interacts. We will continue seeing various solutions the next 24-36 hours until the energy comes onshore and things settle down. The CMC p-type depiction is the most reasonable given the overall synoptic setup IMO, someone is going to get a nasty ice storm.
Jessy89
Member
Cmc is the only model giving upstate Sc a ice storm. But If it really verified we be in trouble. Power out
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Just for the record, the CMC p-type distribution is completely unrealistic and almost definitely erroneous as is it's surface low track given the H5 setup matches the FV3 and ECMWF. If I were working at a NWS office I wouldn't even consider it's solution.
During the early December winter storm, temperatures for us actually did end up slightly cooler during the event than predicted by the models. During most of the heaviest snowfall surface temperatures hovered at around 30-31°F. Models predicted temperatures would remain at or above freezing for the entire event. It's hard for me to discount the CMC at this time for that reason. Not looking like much of a snow event at all though if you live east of I-85 this time.
Fountainguy97
Member
GFS, CMC, ICON, and latest UK all have very similar LP track. Mostly west to east. NAM is actually not far from them and by 84 the lowest MB is down right where other models have it while the NAM's precip field is way north.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn’t toss the CMC until the RGEM and NAM are within their day 2 ish wheelhouses, and have provided their input and I’d concur the CMC is not bad with CAD once it has a pulse on the large scale pattern which is usually its downfall. I’ve seen cases where the GFS & Euro are equally bad with CAD events, but the CMC usually can’t get the synoptic pattern right so often misses badly.
snowlover91
Member
Fwiw the 00z CMC ensembles also supported a very icy scenario for CAD regions.
It does seem weird that the CMC shows rain northwest of sleet/ZR. Did not notice that. There could be a narrow icing corridor with cold rain to the south and east and sleet/snow to the north and west.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So if it is wrong, do you think it will be more snow or just rain?