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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned this earlier either here or on the Jan blog, most near the I-20 corridor will have to wait for the EPO to tank before getting a really good sniff of the action.
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Webber, at what time frame are you looking for this to happen? I believe I seen deltadog post daily epo drops right??
 
DarkKnight said:
Webber, at what time frame are you looking for this to happen? I believe I seen deltadog post daily epo drops right??
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I believe he was posting the SOI numbers. I'm not webber but synoptically I would look for the EPO to tank end of January into early February.
 
Rain Cold said:
So far, this hasn't looked like a setup synoptically where a large portion of the SE gets a winter storm. We're at virtually the inception of a potential pattern change from crap to non-crap. Once we get deeper into a better pattern, I would expect many more areas will be looking at the threat of wintry weather.
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Exactly. It might hurt, but most models have shown this to be a northern fringe of NC and triad/foothills/mountains event. The pattern change with blocking over the top and super tall +PNA will help force cold and storms south.
 
RollTide18 said:
Yeah another NC event but our time will come.
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Not sure its much of a NC threat. WRAL has said today that colder air is coming in, but by the time the moisture arrives this weekend the atmosphere would be too warm to support anything frozen in the Triangle area. Maybe the mountains...
 
Avalanche said:
Not sure its much of a NC threat. WRAL has said today that colder air is coming in, but by the time the moisture arrives this weekend the atmosphere would be too warm to support anything frozen in the Triangle area. Maybe the mountains...
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It might end up like that, but I would not take stock in what WRAL is saying now. They always say the same thing this far out no matter what. They had me with 1 to 2 inches of snow to start with the last storm and ended up getting close to 10.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It might end up like that, but I would not take stock in what WRAL is saying now. They always say the same thing this far out no matter what. They had me with 1 to 2 inches of snow to start with the last storm and ended up getting close to 10.
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I usually do when it comes to snow totals and storm impact. However, when it comes to temps supporting a winter storm, they are usually fair with the public about that....nevermind they've messed that up before too.
 
ILN has introduced a chance of snow here on Sat. I may get lucky after all ! And if you are in the south and want snow, you should be rooting for me since a snowpack here would help you guys later !
 
I don't think we can be too sure about anything until we see how far southwest the cold air at 850 to the surface drives with the frontal passage on tuesday and wednsday...I know it will be on our doorstep then, but I believe that system will lay the ground work for the weekend.
 
FV3 is having another crazy high totals party all by itself. 2 feet in western Arkansas, 6-8 inches in Upstate SC, etc.
 
Bsud said:
This looks like a repeat of the DEC storm, especially for the CAD regions of NC and Upstate.

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You think upstate sc gets this one?


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Yeah FWIW 18Z has a stronger cold press (1046! High that is further south), less of a Great Lakes low to mess up confluence, and a further south low. Starting to slowly march towards the Euro
 
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