• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

I guess something to remember is the gfs has a warm bias. Fv3 probably has the right idea


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Yep, gfs brings higher mslp anomalies further south, slightly less amped lp. hp near the GL's, that cad signature is stronger on the 18z aswell, cad areas get hammered with all modes of wintry precip with that look, oof the ice it shows
 
Last edited:
18z running off old 12z data. 0z will be very interesting tonight, not for my area but for my chasing
 
Jessy89 said:
Probably a mix to rain. Question his how long the mixed stuff last


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I can count on both hands and feet, how many times this forecast was given( changeover) , and it stayed all frozen. I think the ultimate track will be a blend of 12z Euro and 18Z GFS. Not as amped as GFS and not as suppressed as Euro! Mix line along and N/NW of 85
 
Tarheel1 said:
I can count on both hands and feet, how many times this forecast was given( changeover) , and it stayed all frozen. I think the ultimate track will be a blend of 12z Euro and 18Z GFS. Not as amped as GFS and not as suppressed as Euro! Mix line along and N/NW of 85
Click to expand...

I sure hope this is the case. I’m looking forward to see the fv3 I think that has a better handle then the gfs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Yep, many times when mets like brad p says it will turn to rain at the end of the event, it stays frozen, he said that would happen the last storm and it never changed over to rain, just sleet/zr
 
Tarheel1 said:
I can count on both hands and feet, how many times this forecast was given( changeover) , and it stayed all frozen. I think the ultimate track will be a blend of 12z Euro and 18Z GFS. Not as amped as GFS and not as suppressed as Euro! Mix line along and N/NW of 85
Click to expand...
You nailed it. It’s really not a hard forecast when models are already flirting with 85 at this lead. CAD may be stronger but 32 degree heavy rain still equals rain. We’ll see where things go from here. It could be a sleetfest to ZR but for now I will reluctantly lean towards 33 degree rain here in the southern part of the upstate
 
Last edited:
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You nailed it. It’s really not a hard forecast when models are already flirting with 85 at this lead. CAD may be stronger but 32 degree heavy rain still equals rain. We’ll see where things go from here. It could be a sleetfest to ZR but for now I will reluctantly lean towards 33 degree rain here in the upstate
Click to expand...

Bingo for now that’s the best guess


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You nailed it. It’s really not a hard forecast when models are already flirting with 85 at this lead. CAD may be stronger but 32 degree heavy rain still equals rain. We’ll see where things go from here. It could be a sleetfest to ZR but for now I will reluctantly lean towards 33 degree rain here in the upstate
Click to expand...
But you are speaking specifically of your location correct? Because North of 85 through places like TR, Pickens, Easley, downtown Greenville, places like that looks frozen precip



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Also, while we can’t completely ignore a major global model’s output, we have to be wary of one that’s spitting out a 1046/1047 highs. I think the EPS earlier had it somewhere in the mid 1030’s which to me is more realistic. WNC/MA slopfest is my early call with this one. Hopeful for some major changes though
 
Bsud said:
But you are speaking specifically of your location correct? Because North of 85 through places like TR, Pickens, Easley, downtown Greenville, places like that looks frozen precip



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yes I’m just south by a hair. North of 85 always with a better shot. IMO no one in he CAD region is out of it right now though. Need the less amp’d solution to maximize our potential down this way
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Also, while we can’t completely ignore a major global model’s output, we have to be wary of one that’s spitting out a 1046/1047 highs. I think the EPS earlier had it somewhere in the mid 1030’s which to me is more realistic. WNC/MA slopfest is my early call with this one. Hopeful for some major changes though
Click to expand...
The euro op has from what I can see a 1038, but it could be stronger at other parts of the run. The GEFS has a 1040 and the EPS is around 1037 max.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top