NCSNOW
Member
It always does this. Did it in December storm as well. Model mechanics. Biggest thing is look for lp and hp placement, qpf output
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
It always does this. Did it in December storm as well. Model mechanics. Biggest thing is look for lp and hp placement, qpf output
Kylo
Member
Wish the ull was 100 miles further south. Va has to be salivating.
packfan98
Moderator
GEFS also had a pretty significant bump in precip totals over the past few runs. Now many areas are over 1". The triangle is around 1.25". If they stay below freezing, it's a big ticket winter storm.
Kylo
Member
UK further south than GFS.
Jessy89
Member
So are we trending south with the low today?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Kylo
Member
UK snow
Much improved for central NC. Still not looking good for GSP and northern GA.
packfan98
Moderator
That's a huge improvement! From what I've seen so far, many of the models have the low further north initially before correcting to a more suppressed and OTS look when it arrives in the SE. The HP placement seems to be wobbling a bit on the models. IF it holds in a good position, we will continue to see the surface temps decrease on the models the next couple of days, possibly resulting in a higher impact mix area in the CAD regions.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
GEFS and UK both improved. Some positive trends today for sure.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like the FV3 is running late on even starting. Probably going to be a bit or not at all for 12Z.
Avalanche
Member
Mike Maze is on board now with concerns for wintry weather this weekend over the NW mountains and foothills of NC.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Am I wrong for not punting yet
Snowed In
Member
I believe this is only for far, far NE GA at best if you are looking for wintry precip in GA.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wouldn't punt just yet in terms of ice. Looks better than the December system did, and we barely missed it that time. For snow I'd throw that out right now. Our time can be later this month or in a week or two.
Snowed In
Member
I would punt for my area only since I am on the Southside of ATL
SnowNiner
Member
Out to 96 on the euro the system looks a bit south of 0z and stronger in E texas. I'm not sure why I'm doing pbp. lol.
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely a stronger system at 108. Let's see where it goes.
packfan98
Moderator
Euro is definitely putting out more precip this run and looking more like some of the other 12z models. Looks to be good snows in the mountains, foothills, and NW of the Triad at 120.
Looks a touch colder, factor in it's warm surface temp bias and it has major written all over it....
I'd like to see ip/zr maps from the Euro, looks like an icy mess
Jessy89
Member
What about upstate sc NE ga. On Euro?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
Major mess!
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea I sat around 33-34 in December, if we can just get 1-2 degrees colder with a stronger CAD we are in business to at least see something.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Kylo
Member
SLP track very close to UK. Big ice storm in cad regions.
Jessy89
Member
That’s not going to do it for people in sc or ga.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fountainguy97
Member
Interesting how EURO has a MUCH stronger HP but much less snow across the region than UK.
packfan98
Moderator
The precip more than doubled this run. Now it's in line with the other modeling. Par for the course this year. It will be a lot of something. Frozen for some. Cold rain for others.
Again if those temps are off by just a degree, yeah a major mess.... also DP's appear to be lower with this system then the Dec. system and for the CAD areas that one seriously over performed.
Btw, a word about DP's I saw the map @deltadog03 posted earlier and @snowlover91 touched on this.... the NAM was showing some crazy low DP's with the Dec storm at this lead time that never verified so just keep that in mind
Little more amped so maybe a little more WAA to contend with?
Suprised to not see much sleet in these runs, watch it pop up at day 2, happens everytime where a ice storm ends up becoming a sleet storm
snowlover91
Member
Yeah for now I would trust the global DP's over the NAM until we get inside 60 hours. The December system the NAM was showing DP's in the teens while the GFS was upper 20s in NC and the upper 20 DP's verified quite well. The good news is even the GFS for this system is showing DP's starting in the teens for most in NC, SC and even northern GA which if it verifies would likely produce a much stronger CAD than currently modeled. This will also have implications for the SLP track and ice effects.
.7 here. Relatively light event for MBY this year. It has been relentless
Kylo
Member
Reminds me of Jan 2010, not as cold at 850 though.
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
The December storm was a lot more juiced up. There won't be as much moisture to waste on rain or ice in order to maximize snow totals.
SnowNiner
Member
Boo, Euro. Yeah it's a fine line. Weak and strung out and there's hardly any precip and it's a novelty. Want more precip, get's more wound up, the storms more north. Yeah, congrats north/west of 40 again. That's the place to be in NC for sure.
SnowNiner
Member
Mid-Atlantic is starting to get excited on this one. Good for them.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m surprised, they’ve felt that rug pulled before. I actually think CAD areas of NC would be where I’d want to be, maybe SW VA. MA is going to be too far north for the heavy stuff.
Kylo
Member
EPS looks good, HP stronger and strung out weak low.
Well looks good for snow and ice if that’s your thing.
Well looks good for snow and ice if that’s your thing.
Kylo
Member
Got to say, the GFS has led the Euro on this. I would trust the Euro from here on out but it was a mess until this run.